A smaller political party in the UK is getting attention as polling gauges the mood of voters ahead of a general election that could happen this year. It’s not a new party, but if it gains enough traction, it could become a true alternative for Britain’s conservatives.
Reform UK started out as Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party and elected 29 members to the European Parliament. The trouble is that one-issue parties rarely sustain momentum, so the party rebranded itself as Reform UK. During the pandemic, the party positioned itself as a protest outfit against lockdowns, and a handful of Conservative Party members and even a few politicians from the left joined.
Farage left the party’s leadership in early 2021, and Reform UK tried to field candidates in smaller elections. Last year, party leader Richard Tice announced that Reform UK would field candidates in the upcoming parliamentary elections, which could take place this year.
At the dawn of 2024, the party began to see some momentum in the polls, and some Reform candidates received double-digit votes in special elections. That momentum grew this month when MP Lee Hamilton defected from the Conservatives to Reform, becoming the party’s first member of Parliament. The Conservatives suspended Hamilton after he said that Islamists had “got control” of London Mayor Sadiq Khan; Hamilton defended himself by claiming that he was “speaking up on behalf of millions of people up and down the country who agree with me.”
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Reform UK’s emphasis on curbing immigration — legal and illegal — has garnered plenty of interest, as has the possibility of a conservative party that is legitimately conservative. Naturally, mainstream press outlets have branded Reform as a “right-wing populist” party, largely because of its associations with Brexit and Farage, but the notice that Reform is getting proves that the party may have staying power.
“A cloud on the Conservative horizon that was once no bigger than the proverbial man’s hand coming up from the sea is looming very much larger,” wrote Patrick O’Flynn at the Spectator in February. “Reform is now firmly in a political sweet spot — for them, success is breeding success and their brand awareness is soaring just as deeply disenchanted former Tory voters are looking around for a new political outlet.”
In another Spectator piece from last week, Rod Liddle pointed out that Reform’s pledge to reform the government-run BBC makes the party attractive to voters. He also noted other reasons that conservatives may give Reform a second look.
“A more robust kickback against the increasingly deranged ‘woke’ agenda is another, seeing that Conservative party pledges on doing the same can be taken with less than a pinch of salt,” he wrote. “Most of the fashionable absurdities have developed during the party’s past eight years in government and very often useful idiots in the party in parliament have been instrumental in putting them into effect. The ‘one-in, one-out’ policy on immigration also has a certain allure, even if the people who really run the country – the third sector and their lawyers – will prevent it ever happening.”
To be fair, Liddle also said that conservatives might not vote for Reform because “it does not stand a snowball’s chance in hell.” Go figure.
New polling shows that Reform UK is picking up steam. With the possibility of a general election looming, Reform is running only four points behind the Conservatives, with Reform picking up 15% support to the Tories’ 19%. The Labour Party leads with 25% support.
“The poll comes after Lee Anderson's defection to Reform — which has seen the party boost its membership and visibility,” Katy Balls reported about the poll at the Spectator. “So an Anderson-linked poll bump had been expected. The question is whether this is part of a new trend that could even see Reform level peg or overtake the Tories.”
Balls pointed out that more news on the horizon could be a boon for Reform and doom for the Tories:
As for where Reform go next, there could be more defections – particularly if the party continues to climb in the polls. On the day of Anderson’s defection, Tice and others suggested there would be plenty more to come. As I wrote in last week's Spectator cover piece, they claim they are speaking to a dozen MPs, mainly Tories but a few independents and one Labour. The most likely defection time is after the May local elections. But the biggest factor that could help Reform gather further momentum is the return of Nigel Farage. When he appeared on Spectator TV last week, Farage would not rule out the possibility. A return would be a nightmare scenario for the Tories.
Those in Reform believe they have an opportunity to seize this moment of peak Tory unpopularity (few prime ministers have seen approval ratings as low as Sunak has now) and use it for a realignment of politics. This latest poll suggests their plan is gathering pace.
Farage is riding high in popularity after appearing on the reality competition series “I'm a Celebrity...Get Me Out of Here!” and finishing third. He’s prime for a political comeback, and Reform UK could be his moment.
A reunion of Farage and Reform UK could make the upstart party a force for conservative Britons to reckon with. And it could lead the Tories to rethink much of what they've tried to do the past several years.
All of this could benefit conservatism in the UK. Here's hoping it will.
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