We’re a little less than 18 months away from the 2024 election, and it already seems like it’s been going on for years. So much of the narrative surrounds a supposedly inevitable grudge rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
The thing is, Donald Trump isn’t a given yet. Gov. Ron DeSantis will be a formidable opponent if (or when) he declares his candidacy, and other candidates like Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) could have sizable followings of their own. But what I want to focus on today is the Democrat side of the contest.
From the outside looking in at the Democrats, it seems like they would want to shake themselves loose from the oblivious octogenarian Biden, but they can’t seem to quit him. I’m old enough to remember the last time an incumbent Democrat who was sinking the country into oblivion became the standard-bearer in his quest for a second term. Of course, I’m talking about Jimmy Carter in 1980, and the road to 2024 so far feels like déjà vu for that election.
For starters, there’s the record of the incumbent Democrat in the White House. Carter took an economy that had been in rough shape throughout the ’70s and somehow made it worse. Biden took an economy that the COVID-19 pandemic had ravaged but was on the upswing and ruined it. When it came to foreign policy, both Biden and Carter demonstrated terrible instincts and even worse policies. In short, Carter’s term and Biden’s first term both weakened America in every possible way.
Another parallel between 1980 and 2024 is the fact that the incumbent has challengers — and in both cases, one of those challengers is a Kennedy. (Side note: both Democrat incumbents had flaky challengers as well: Jerry Brown in 1980 and Marianne Williamson in 2024.) Chappaquiddick Ted fell short with less than 38% of the primary vote.
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In 1980, Ted Kennedy mounted a campaign against Carter. At that time, Kennedy was a powerful, influential senator, and he carried dozens of endorsements from politicians, authors, and celebrities, while Carter had only nine key endorsements. In the current contest, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has become the fourth Kennedy to run for the White House. (Americans can’t really complain about the British royal family when we keep Kennedys, Clintons, and Bushes in the political limelight.)
Wikipedia lists RFK, Jr., as having four important endorsements — including his wife — but there’s another interesting phenomenon in that some conservatives are inexplicably enamored with Kennedy, even though he’s a dyed-in-the-wool leftist.
The trouble is that, despite the formidable challenge that RFK, Jr. is presenting to Romney — and I’ll admit that he’s bringing some ideas out into the open that we wouldn’t otherwise hear about, even if I can’t understand why some on the right have fallen for him — Biden is going to walk away with the nomination.
Why? Because both parties have tended to operate from the mentality that the incumbent deserves his chance to continue. That’s how Carter survived Kennedy’s challenge in 1980. That’s part of the reason why Ronald Reagan wasn’t able to unseat Gerald Ford in 1976. And it’s why RFK, Jr., won’t get past Biden in the 2024 primary, barring any strange circumstances.
The encouraging side of the parallels between 1980 and how 2024 has shaped up so far is that the 1980 election gave us Reagan. Does that mean that the next phase of conservative leadership could emerge as a result of the 2024 election? It’s not too late to start hoping and praying for it.
Regardless of who emerges from the GOP primary, we can’t afford another four years of Joe Biden, and we here at PJ Media are going to do everything we can to spread the message of a vibrant and exciting conservative future. You can help us by becoming a PJ Media VIP.
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