Parts of the U.S. and Europe have seen oppressive heatwaves that have made this summer unbearable for many people. The situation has been particularly bad in Europe, where air conditioning isn’t as prevalent as it is here in the U.S.
When you see the reporting of the heat that these places are experiencing, you’ll also see references to climate change. Of course, we know that’s because the prevailing narrative is that climate change is some existential threat that promises to wipe out humanity within the next few years if we don’t give up a comfortable, modern way of life.
Anthony Watts, senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute, wrote an article over at Climate Realism on Friday that pokes holes in that narrative.
“The error that is common to all of these news articles is the fact that weather is not climate,” he writes (with emphasis in the original). “Weather is an event that might last for minutes to a few days. A heatwave is a weather event that is typically linked to large scale weather patterns, such as a high-pressure cell which can create heat-domes in the summer.”
Watts cites the World Meteorological Association’s definition of climate as “the measurement of the mean and variability of relevant quantities of certain variables (such as temperature, precipitation or wind) over a period of time, ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).”
He notes that the media reports linking this summer’s heat incidents to long-term climate trends have no proof to them and engage in “nothing more than speculative fearmongering.”
Related: We Can’t Blame Tornadoes on Climate Change
Watts sites BBC weather maps from 2012 and this year that not only show higher temperatures ten years ago but also employ bright red coloring to this year’s map as a scare tactic.
But we don’t just have to look at a decade ago to see that heatwaves are largely isolated phenomena. Watts notes that heatwaves have happened throughout history. For instance, we can find evidence that the U.S. experienced more severe heatwaves in the early 20th century than we’re seeing this year.
Climate at a Glance tells us that “in recent decades in the United States, heat waves have been far less frequent and severe than they were in the 1930s. The all-time high temperature records set in most states occurred in the first half of the twentieth century.”
Watts points out that a simple internet search can prove that heatwaves are historical phenomena that aren’t tied to climate patterns.
“A search of the term heatwaves, on Wikipedia, for instance, finds that a heatwave and drought in 1540 in Europe lasted for 11 months, and that a heatwave in 1757 was the hottest in the past 500 years until 2003,” he writes. “Also, Netweather Community TV, called the 1906 heatwave in the U.K during August and September, ‘one of the most exceptional heatwaves to ever occurred in the UK.’ A 1911 heatwave in France contributed to more than 41,000 premature deaths.”
“More recently, in Europe, there was a massive months-long heat wave in 1976,” he continues. “This came at a time when the Earth was experiencing a 30 year cooling trend, that led many scientists to warn the next ice age was looming.”
There’s also a certain skewing of the numbers when it comes to reporting this year’s heatwave. Watts demonstrates that the breathless reporting of a record high temperature in the BBC and the New York Times was a temperature reading from a hot tarmac at a Royal Air Force base.
Other factors skew the temperature reports a little higher, but they’re related to population growth in the UK rather than a human effect on the climate.
“It is well-known that the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect can contribute to warmer high temperatures, and given the UK went from 56 million people in 1976 to 67 million in 2020, it isn’t the least bit surprising that the UHI increased as infrastructure to support that 11 million extra people was added to that island nation,” Watts writes.
Atmospheric scientist Cliff Mass said that this summer’s European heat wave is an example of his “Golden Rule of Climate Extremes”: “The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability and the smaller the contribution of human-caused global warming.”
Mass is pretty straightforward when he concludes that “the recent European heat wave was caused by an amplification of the northern hemisphere wave pattern, with global warming contributing perhaps 5-10% of the warmth. Natural variability of the atmosphere was the proximate cause of the warmth and does not represent an existential threat to the population of Europe.”
So don’t believe the OHMYWORDTHESKYISFALLING doom and gloom of the left. A heatwave in Western Europe and parts of the U.S. isn’t proof that we need to give up our cars and air conditioning units and live in caves like the environmental elite want us to while they live high on the hog. Weather is weather — nothing more, and like so many other weather patterns, this too shall pass.
