More Interesting Times: What Are Russia and China Thinking?

Today’s interesting times question: What are Russia and China up to?

It’s Christmas, so of course Russia and China are dropping some Christmas gifts. 

Russia started by hitting civilian targets in Ukraine — misses and drones, aimed at Ukrainian power stations and homes — and shooting down an Azerbaijani civilian plane. That might have been by accident, but it was followed by refusing emergency landings, forcing the plane to cross the Caspian while jamming GPS. The plane finally managed to land in Kazakhstan, but at least 38 people were killed.

Merry Christmas.

In the meantime, a wandering Chinese ship dragged anchor over power and data cables between Finland and Estonia. The Finns have taken custody of the ship, and we hope we find out some more. In the meantime, Finland is calling on NATO to increase its presence. I’ve written about one of the first of these in the past. This is a different ship, same song, another verse.

Merry Christmas.

And, of course, China has been trying to extend its reach over the South China Sea at the expense of the Philippines. The Philippines have signed up for U.S. anti-missile systems, which prompted some fairly explicit threats from the People’s Republic. 

Merry Christmas.

So what the hell are they up to?

It honestly puts me in mind of the warmer parts of the Cold War. Nothing they’re doing is enough of an issue to justify a real military response, especially with Putin rattling his nuclear arms at every opportunity. The hot war between Russia and Ukraine continues with a lot of propaganda on either side — and yes, both sides are issuing propaganda; if you think otherwise, I have a bridge for sale cheap — but it looks like a war of attrition in which Ukraine is attriting Russia’s logistics very badly, while Russia is trying to make life as hard as possible for Ukrainian civilians.

But then what about the cables?

Again, it’s not something that should prompt a strong military response. I am guessing that both the Finns and the Baltics are going to be watching Chinese and Russian shipping really closely, with a good bit of Navy ships pushing Russian and Chinese civilian ships around. They might even be closing off the sea lanes, or restricting transit to escorted convoys. But that’s made difficult by Köningberg, er, Kaliningrad still being a Russian territory.

But in truth, that would be sound and fury signifying nothing — on its own.

I think the important thing is that replacing undersea cables is expensive. I think Putin is trying to make continued European support of Ukraine as unpleasant as possible in hopes that the Europeans will back down. 

Of course, that’s of a piece with the current pressure in the U.S., where a whole lot of people have decided the U.S. should be more isolationist in its attitude toward Ukraine. And I think China sees anything that distracts the U.S. as a good thing for their interests.

And then, of course, there’s Donald Trump.

Trump understands correctly that wars in Europe are bad for business. He’s certainly talked a lot about finding a quick solution in Ukraine. And, frankly, Putin will see any settlement that leaves Russia with any part of Ukraine that it has taken as a win that gets him out of a war that has become more of a quagmire than Afghanistan was. Add to that an agreement that keeps Ukraine out of NATO, and that would be an even bigger win.

So I think Russia is mostly trying to apply pressure to improve its bargaining position after the inauguration. There’s pretty good reason to believe that Russia doesn’t actually have much to bargain with in nuclear weapons, although I’d sure hate to have to find out. I’m sure Putin has a better idea than we do in any case. 

I think it comes down to Trump. Is Putin calculating that Trump will go for a cheap way out? Does Putin think the Europeans want a cheap way out? (If it was me, I wouldn’t want to bet on that, as there are too many NATO members who remember being under Russian control.) Is Trump willing to be rolled early in his term?

I don’t know. I just think once again that we’re finding ourselves in interesting times.