That Russian Airliner Shoot-Down Was Even Worse Than It Looked

Alexei Druzhinin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

Azerbaijan wants Moscow to admit to an "attack" on a national airliner on Christmas day that left 38 dead after it crashed in Kazakhstan. "The Azerbaijani government demands official recognition, a formal apology, and accountability for those responsible for the attack," according to an Azeri Times report translated by Visegrád 24.

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There were 17 survivors, including 14 passengers and three crewmembers. Video taken of the crash indicates that the pilots were relying entirely on the engines to maneuver the aircraft. 

Various reports indicate that Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8432 lost hydraulic controls following an explosion near the rear of the aircraft, indicative of a small surface-to-air missile like those fired by Russia's Pantsir-S air defense system. Survivors heard an explosion and reported shrapnel flying through the Embraer 190AR, a small regional jetliner manufactured in Brazil. 

The flight originated in Baku, Azerbaijan, on its way to Grozny in the Russian Federation's Chechnya Republic but was re-routed to Makhachkala, also in Russia, due to fog. However, the plane diverted again just before reaching Makhachkala and headed east across the Caspian Sea toward Kazakhstan in Central Asia. 

Before getting to why J2-8243 turned east instead of landing, let me remind you that it's not the war crime; it's the cover-up. 

Honestly, I used the phrase "war crime" only to dismiss it. What we have here looks more like a case of "war suckitude." Russian air defenses were on heightened alert due to a Ukrainian drone attack, and some Russian air defense soldier with an itchy trigger finger seemed to have made a gruesome mistake. That said, Azerbaijan is correct to demand recompense, and Russia ought to pay quickly and in full. 

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Just because there was no criminal intent motivating the missile launch doesn't mean that Moscow — or perhaps local Russian forces — didn't attempt a coverup that might have cost lives. Because what happened after that errant Pantsir missile disabled the Azerbaijan Airlines jet, appears to have been no accident at all.

First, though, a shout-out to the pilot and copilot:

Indeed.

After changing course toward Kazakhstan, J2-8243 dropped off of GPS. According to real-time tracking service Flightradar24, the aircraft was "exposed to strong GPS jamming and spoofing." 

When location tracking resumed about three-quarters of the way to the crash site, GPS tracking showed an airliner flying erratically. "The aircraft was unable to maintain consistent altitude and speed for at least 75 minutes," Flightradar24 reported. "Photos and video from the crash scene indicate puncture damage to at least the left side of the vertical stabilizer."

Flight J28243 was scheduled to operate from Baku to Grozny. The aircraft departed Baku at 03:55 UTC. Valid ADS-B position data was received from the aircraft until 04:25 UTC when the flight encountered significant GPS interference. The aircraft stopped sending positional data altogether for the period between 04:25 and 04:37. Between 04:37 and 04:40 the aircraft sent likely erroneous position data.

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The Times of India reported last year that around sensitive locations in Russia, "GPS jamming is quite routine on long-haul flights. We encounter it when entering Russia from the North Pole or say, near the Estonian border, in areas around Simferopol, in (Crimea)." Worrisome, such spoofing "isn’t immediately apparent" to the pilot whose airliner is being jammed. 

Subjected to GPS spoofing/jamming and having been waved off its original destination, J2-8243 may have flown off course and within range of a Russian air defense site on alert for a drone strike. Another possibility is that the flight was jammed after it was hit in a panicked attempt to hide the evidence, so to speak. 

For you conspiracy theorists out there, no, there are no Ukrainian air defense units within firing range. It's more than 500 miles from the nearest Ukrainian forces — through a WHOLE LOTTA RUSSIA — and where J2-8243 was hit.

Moscow has yet to say anything, aside from raising the possibility of a bird strike — which does not fit at all with the video evidence. Maybe the Kremlin is correct not to say anything until all the facts are in, but by now, it certainly looks like enough facts are in. It might be a long time before those 38 dead and their families receive justice. If ever.

If the "Admit nothing!" schtick seems somehow familiar, well...

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...this isn't exactly the first time we've seen something like this.

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