Donald Trump currently maintains a yuge lead over his nearest GOP presidential rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), in an Iowa poll some five months before the state’s primary Caucus Day.
Trump’s more than 2-to-1 lead over DeSantis has 42% supporting the former president in a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll of likely Republican caucusgoers. This poll comes after Trump’s fourth indictment, this one from Fulton County, Ga., alleging that Trump committed election fraud. Trump’s support among Republicans has increased during the course of his being indicted.
The Des Moines Register reported on Aug. 21:
Among those likely caucusgoers, 42% say they plan to support Trump — a lead of 23 percentage points over DeSantis, who is at 19%. U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina follows in third place with 9%.
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence tie at 6%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is at 5% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy follows with 4%.
Trump’s lead has increased among likely Iowa caucusgoers amid his indictments, including after the latest one. “In the days before the indictment, Trump led DeSantis 38% to 20%. In the days after, his lead grew to 43% over DeSantis’ 18%,” the Register reported. Trump leads DeSantis among self-identified Republicans 51% to 20%.
Despite Trump’s significant lead, pollster J. Ann Selzer, whose firm conducted the poll, asserted that the race is not settled. She said the poll revealed 63% of likely GOP caucusgoers who list Trump as a first or second choice or are at least considering him as an option. DeSantis reportedly had 61% say the same things about him. Meanwhile, 52% of likely Republican caucusgoers say they could potentially be persuaded to switch their primary choice versus 40% who say their minds are made up.
The Register’s piece detailed that the poll indicates that 66% of Trump’s supporters (with him as their first choice) have their minds made up, while only 31% of DeSantis supporters said the same. Therefore, 34% of Trump supporters and 69% of DeSantis supporters are persuadable. The Register also broke down how more Iowans are listing Trump as their first choice versus DeSantis:
Trump’s Iowa footprint includes the 42% who say he is their first choice for president, 10% who say he is their second choice and 12% who say they are actively considering him. That’s 63%, or nearly two-thirds of likely Republican caucusgoers, who are considering caucusing for Trump.
DeSantis’ support includes the 19% who name him as their first choice, 20% who say he is their second choice and 22% who say they are actively considering him — totaling 61%.
Trump’s footprint in Iowa (first choice, second choice, etc.) has increased by 12% after the latest Georgia indictment, the Register noted. The GOP Iowa caucus will take place Jan. 15, 2024. As of right now, Trump seems the likely winner.
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