Iran: It's Now or Never

As of this writing, the twelfth day of Iranian protests has spread to over 200 cities in 26 provinces. In response, the regime has murdered 44 of its citizens and has begun deploying foreign mercenaries from Hezbollah and Iraqi militias to help shore up its own flailing security services. It has shut down the nation’s internet service in an attempt to impose an information blackout.

But most observers agree that there is something different this time around. Despite every prior protest movement in Iran either fizzling out or being brutally crushed, this time the protesters seem unafraid. In response to the brutality and murder of the state, they’ve managed to kill two Basij militia members and a regime colonel.

But the moment also has a now-or-never feel to it. And by that, I mean that President Donald Trump has warned the regime that it would be “hit very hard” if it murdered its own people. Well, the regime is murdering its own people. If President Trump has a plan to help the protesters, the longer we wait, the greater the risk of the protests again losing momentum and fading into history.

The Iranian people have a terrible habit of launching these protests during Democrat administrations, of which the incumbent can barely contain their support for the ayatollahs. But now we have President Trump, who has already shown domestic voters and overseas audiences that we have little to fear from the Iranian government.

Hamas and Hezbollah have been effectively neutered. Syria has fallen. The Houthi militias have the impact of pesky mosquitoes. Israel humiliated the ayatollahs in a twelve-day war. And the United States took out its nuclear facilities with absolutely zero repercussions.

And that was half a year ago. Since then, the Iranian government has only weakened, and Trump’s position has only strengthened. The Iranian currency has since collapsed. Tehran is preparing to run out of water. And the Maduro arrest and subsequent American governance of Venezuelan oil have removed one of the ayatollahs’ crucial lifelines.

At this point, if the neo-isolationists are still filling their diapers at the sight of their own shadows, it’s no longer worth trying to win them back into the “peace through strength” camp. Do we really want people like that?

If Trump struck now, even in a limited way, it would likely mean the end of the regime. The ayatollahs cannot oppress their own people and defend themselves against American attacks at the same time. They will lose whatever legitimacy they had, even as a brutal dictatorship. Knowing the pressure will only increase, the ayatollahs will likely flee to spend their lingering days in posh flats in Nevsky Prospekt.

My (not always reliable) instinct tells me that Trump has a plan and that he’s debating when, not if, to implement it. He has already warned the Iranian government twice in the last two weeks, and it has ignored his warnings. And people who doubted him a week ago now know that he doesn’t bluff.

My instinct also tells me that the only reason our drones aren’t strafing IRGC hideouts is not that the regime won’t fall but that there are too many “unknowns” as to what comes afterwards. If the regime falls, and falls quickly, how will we secure its nuclear sites? Would that require boots on the ground?

Venezuela is one thing, but Iran is in the backyard of China and Russia. Would their saboteurs use the power vacuum to wreak more havoc? Are we trying to get support structures in place before taking any action? Are we working behind the scenes to get key figures to flip?

At the end of the day, writers like me with zero access to this crucial information can speculate all we want. No doubt the only reason Trump hasn’t acted yet is that the conditions are not yet favorable enough for us to risk action.

And if we are not going to help? Then so be it. But if we are going to help, I fear it’s now or never. This weekend will likely determine whether the momentum increases or is shattered. Trump has drawn a line in the sand. The ayatollahs have crossed it. Allowing them to continue unpunished would hand them an unforced moral victory and an undeserved lifeline.