9/8, 8:01 PM EDT: As you can see on the Cuban radar (link fixed!) and infrared satellite loops, Hurricane Ike has made its long-awaited turn to the west-northwest, and is now paralleling the south-central Cuban coast.
Ike’s top winds weakened during its 14-hour passage over land, and are now estimated at 80 mph — an estimate that may be “generous,” according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5pm EDT discussion. The minimum central pressure is up to 966 millibars. The NHC says some strengthening is possible in the short term, so long as Ike’s center remains over water, but this seems doubtful if it remains so close to land. Furthermore, Ike is currently going through an eyewall replacement cycle, and probably will not finish the cycle until it’s back over land. This, too, will inhibit short-term strengthening.
Further weakening is likely when Ike makes its second passage across Cuba tomorrow, and Ike may be a mere tropical storm when it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. After that, however, re-strengthening is expected. Alan Sullivan notes that “so far Ike is retaining good symmetry, which implies it could redevelop quickly in the Gulf.” But how much re-strengthening? Dr. Jeff Masters says Ike is likely to become a major hurricane again:
Ike should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday relatively intact. It will take the storm a day or two to reorganize once over the Gulf, where wind shear is expected to be light (<10 knots) and water temperatures will be warm, near 30°C. Ike should be able to intensify into a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Thursday, as forecast by the GFDL and HWRF models.
[UPDATE: On the other hand, Eric Berger thinks “the chance of Ike strengthening back into a Category 3 hurricane is now probably less than 50-50, and that might be generous,” because of the weakening over Cuba. But he does note that the some computer models “still bring an extremely intense hurricane to the Gulf coast.”]
So… Ike remains a potentially significant threat. But where will it go, once it reaches the Gulf? And will it maintain its likely major-hurricane strength all the way to landfall?
The probable answer to the first question has changed significantly, as Dr. Masters explains:
[T]here has been a major shift in the model tracks for Thursday and Friday. All of the models are calling for a more westward motion, bringing Ike to a landfall in Texas sometime Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The new set of model runs is portraying stronger high pressure over the central Gulf on Wednesday and Thursday [which] will push Ike faster than expected to the west. The trough of low pressure expected to turn Ike to the north does not arrive until Friday night, after the storm has already made landfall in Texas. The timing and strength of this trough, plus the speed with which Ike moves across the Gulf this week are still uncertain. We cannot be confident yet of a Texas landfall until we see several model runs in row that lock in on this solution. All five major models–the GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF–foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Port Arthur. The GFDL model foresees landfall as a Category 2, and the HWRF as a Category 3. Landfall could be as early as Friday afternoon, or as late as Saturday morning.
The “bullseye” on the official NHC forecast currently lies near Bay City, about two-thirds of the way from Corpus Christi north to Houston/Galveston. However, the 5pm discussion suggests it could shift further south soon: “THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS…SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.” So, if the models “lock in,” as Dr. Masters mentions, we could see an even more southerly forecast track tomorrow. [UPDATE: Eric Berger predicts, “I expect the official forecast to shift significantly southward tonight, possibly centering upon Corpus Christi.”]
But it’s way too early to get overly precise in forecasting a landfall location. The entire Texas coast is within the “cone of uncertainty,” and the Lone Star State appears to be Ike’s most likely U.S. target at this point. Louisiana is not totally out of the woods yet — it, too, is still in the “cone” for now — but a strike there appears fairly unlikely at this time.
The other crucial question is, assuming Ike strengthens to a major hurricane over the Gulf, will it maintain that intensity to landfall? Dr. Masters writes:
Once Ike approaches the coast on Friday, the total heat content of the ocean declines, and the shear is forecast to rise to a moderate 15-20 knots. The GFDL and HWRF models respond by weakening Ike to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at landfall in Texas. This is a reasonable forecast, but our skill in forecasting intensity is low, and Ike could just as easily be a Category 1 or Category 4 hurricane at landfall.
Time will tell. First we need to see how badly Cuba will disrupt Ike’s core over the next 24 hours, which will largely determine how quickly the storm reorganizes over the Gulf. By tomorrow night or Wednesday morning, hopefully we’ll start to get a better idea what kind of threat to Texas this storm really poses.
For now, the Houston Chronicle‘s Eric Berger has a post about who should evacuate, and who shouldn’t, if — if — Ike eventually threatens Houston/Galveston area as a major hurricane. He also promises a full post later this evening “concerning its potential intensity and where it’s likely to go.” Check his homepage for that. [UPDATE: Here’s the post.]
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