7:13 pm PST
As I get drunker and more tired, it gets harder to choose between waiting for real caucus results from Hawaii and going to sleep. Tough choice… earning my paycheck from Pajamas Media… or sweet, precious blackness. Third option: Cheat and get both.
So here we go.
Let’s just pretend that Obama won Hawaii.
Bear with me here — it’s not that big a stretch. It’s not like I’m arguing that the Republican candidate for president just won nine Southern states, so please just assume that he won Vermont, too. No, we’re talking about the state where Obama was born, and where he presumably still has some play. And we’re also talking about Hillary, who, if she was left out on the Oahu beach, would probably burn like a redhead on the nasty side of Mercury.
Or, depending on your point of view, where Hillary might burst into flame like Dracula on a float trip.
Where were we again? Oh, yes — Obama, we’ll say, has just won his tenth contest in a row.
Already, Clinton cut short her campaigning in Wisconsin to fly south and shore up Texas. Rudy Giuliani tried the same strategy in Florida, and what did it get him? Oh, yes – Rudy dropped out the day after Florida. Even with some massive cheating, Hillary needs to win both Ohio and Texas to stay alive. Right now, she’ll might win both, but Texas is already looking shaky. We have yet to see how Obama’s double wins today will change the polls in TX and OH, but don’t expect another pair of losses to help Hill in either state.
And where does that leave Hillary? I’ve said it again and again for weeks now. Bar some miraculous rules-bending in Denver, Hillary Clinton is finished. She’s lost. She won’t be the nominee. The junior senator from New York is and will remain the junior senator from New York. She’s joined the choir invisible.
This is an ex-campaign.
P.S. In other news, we’ll make some assumptions about Washington state, too. John McCain will win, but Mike Huckabee will score well with some of the creepy folk out in the eastern part of the state.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go pass out. With any luck, I’ll remain that way until the next big primaries in two weeks.
6:48 pm PST —
ABC News has called Wisconsin for Barack Obama. Obama is now nine for nine out of the last nine contests. If my math is right, that’s like way over 50%.
And there’s still Hawaii to go later tonight – where Obama is expected to win handily.
Here’s the shocker: The exit polls perfectly paraphrase Mojo Nixon: The young, the old, the fat, the skinny, the white, the black, the brown and the blue people got Obama in ’em too. Obama is everywhere. Obama wins everything.
To further paraphrase: Hillary Clinton has no Obama in her.
And after losing ten straight, she’s got no mojo, either.
In other hard-hitting, fast-breaking news, John McCain also won in Wisconsin. In exit polls, the voter who showed up was quoted as saying, “Ron who?”
Next stop: Hawaii.
4:26 pm PST:
With even President Bush all set to endorse John McCain (but not endorse him too much), all the excitement is on the Democratic side of the primary process. And what a process it is. Just when even political junkies like me think we understand it, the Democrats prove there’s more — or less? — to their nomination process than meets the eye.
For example, did you know that you can win the Democratic nomination without winning the nomination? It’s true. And there’s not one, but two ways to do it.
By now, everybody knows about the superdelegates — those 790 or so high-ranking party officials, hacks, etc, who get to vote at the convention in Denver. They can vote for anybody they like. In a tight race like this year’s, the person with the most delegates and the biggest popular vote could still lose, to whoever can win (bribe, threaten, etc.) enough superdelegates.
But there’s an all-new way to win. The Politico shows you how:
Pledged delegates are not really pledged at all, not even on the first ballot. This has been an open secret in the party for years, but it has never really mattered because there has almost always been a clear victor by the time the convention convened.
But not this time. This time, one candidate may enter the convention leading by just a few pledged delegates, and those delegates may find themselves being promised the sun, moon and stars to switch sides.
And who has the most power to bribe, threaten or cajole pledged-but-not-really-pledged delegates? If you guessed the junior senator from New York who also happens to be the spouse of a rich ex-president,” then you might just get promised the Veep spot on the first female-led presidential ticket.
Meanwhile, exit polls are coming in from Wisconsin, and all I can say is, Hillary had better keep her checkbook handy.