Every dozen years or so, on average, since ostensibly adopting a constitutional monarchy in 1932, Thailand undergoes a military coup, followed by a period of martial law until the power-hungry military is pressured into restoring the glossy, glorious sheen of Democracy™ to the loyal and deserving Thai people.
- 1981
- 1985
- 1991
- 2006
- 2014
- 2025 (?)
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The melodrama more or less plays out the same way: barricades appear on Bangkok streets, various pockets of unrest crop up from dissident factions, a few people get killed, and the military assumes control of the state for an indefinite period of time.
By way of backstory, the most recent threatened coup stems from a flare-up along the Thai-Cambodia border over a long-disputed piece of land claimed by both states.
Via Khaosod English (emphasis added):
The recent dispute was triggered in May after armed forces of Thailand and Cambodia briefly fired at each other in a relatively small “no man’s land” constituting territory along their border that both countries claim as their own…
The contesting claims stem largely from a 1907 map drawn under French colonial rule that was used to separate Cambodia from Thailand.
Cambodia has been using the map as a reference to claim territory, while Thailand has argued the map is inaccurate.
In the aftermath, in a leaked phone call, current Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the notorious Thaksin Shinawatra political dynasty, a proxy of highly influential China, addressed fellow Chinese ally Hun Sen, former Cambodian prime minister, as “uncle” (a signal of respect) and lambasted her own regional Thai commander overseeing the military response on the border as an “opponent.”
Via South China Morning Post (emphasis added):
Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s coalition government in Thailand is teetering on the edge of collapse following the prime minister’s leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, but observers are mixed on whether a feared military coup will occur.
In the leaked audio clip which emerged on Wednesday, Paetongtarn was heard addressing Hun Sen, a family friend, as “uncle” and appeared to dismiss a Thai military commander.
The clip has sparked outrage from quarters of the country’s ruling coalition, including the withdrawal of a key royalist partner group of Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai party, as well as calls for her to resign…
Prem Singh Gill, a visiting scholar at the Muhammadiyah University of Yogyakarta’s faculty of law, said… that a coup was “increasingly likely in the immediate term”, noting that the leaked audio had created a perfect juridical pretext for military intervention under Thailand constitutional framework.
“Paetongtarn’s characterisation of the 2nd Army Area Commander as the ‘opposing side’ constitutes what legal scholars would classify as seditious speech against state institutions,” Gill warned, adding it could also be seen as a textbook violation of her oath of office.
… Shades of Mark Milley chatting up the CCP behind Trump’s back in the first administration, no?
In turbulent Thai politics, badmouthing the military establishment — especially to a foreign adversary — is a major no-no, second in sacrilege only to criticizing the king himself.
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As one analyst noted, Thai security forces have initiated cues on far flimsier pretexts. Only the intervention of the royal family could likely prevent one this time around.
