I've been watching New Jersey's political trajectory for the past few years, fascinated as the state seems to be shedding its deep blue mantle for one of a decidedly paler blue — dare we say, lavender even?
With the exception of Chris Christie's two terms, from 2010 to 2018, Jersey (as we call it in the Northeast) has been governed by Democrats since almost the turn of the millennium. Before that, though, it did an 18-year stint under Republican rule before turning left in 2002.
New Jersey's U.S. senators, Cory Booker and Andy Kim, are both Democrats, as are nine of the state's dozen U.S. Congressional reps. Until fairly recently, I thought the state had gone irrevocably left, as so many once-Republican coastal states did over the past 20 years.
Now I'm not so sure.
As term-limited Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy steps aside, Jersey is holding an election on Nov. 4 to replace him. I wrote about the candidates last summer, and I believe in working smarter, not harder, so I am reproducing that information here:
In the blue corner, we have Mikie Sherrill, currently a U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 11th District. Sherrill is part of the new class of Democrat politicians who present themselves as outwardly centrist and patriotic. On her website, she describes herself thusly: "U.S. Naval Academy graduate, Navy helicopter pilot, former federal prosecutor, wife, and mother of four kids – Mikie Sherrill proudly serves New Jersey in Congress and is running for governor to make life easier and more affordable for Garden State families. Her career has been defined by service to her country and New Jersey."
Back in the day, these characteristics indicated a rock-ribbed Republican. When wielded by a Democrat, they fool enough people into believing they are voting for someone reasonable. Once in office, however, these candidates go on to push socialism and rampant taxpayer-funded abortion just as reliably as the Squad-iest politicians while continuing to present a demeanor that tries to make these awful policies sound logical and mainstream.
In the red corner is Jack Ciattarelli, son of Italian immigrant parents and a successful businessman. He served in the N.J. General Assembly, representing District 16 from 2011 to 2018, and this campaign is his third for governor. As befits a northeastern Republican, Ciattarelli holds truly centrist positions on many issues. He supports allowing abortion up to 20 weeks (a must in blue states, where this will still be labeled woman-hating), and he wants to limit discussion of sexual topics in schools to be age-appropriate. "[W]e're not teaching gender ID and sexual orientation to kindergarteners," he said during a campaign appearance in 2021. "We're not teaching sodomy in sixth grade. And we're going to roll back the LGBTQ curriculum. It goes too far." No matter what the lamestream media says, this is a universally popular stance.
I also noted that, with each run, Ciattarelli got stronger support from his own party in the primary. And in 2021, he came within three points of beating then-incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy.
Related: Meet the Latest Gun-Totin' Christian Democrat Who Has Republicans Running Scared!
And now, a new poll has Ciattarelli running neck-and-neck with Sherrill. The Hill reports, "The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey found both Sherrill and Ciattarelli receiving 43 percent support, with a separate 11 percent undecided — underscoring how the race has tightened in the final stretch before the November election."
The pollsters conducted the survey at the beginning of this week, among a cohort of 935 somewhat likely and very likely New Jersey voters. The poll's margin of error is ±3.1%. The poll is a bit of an outlier; most polls have Sherrill up by anywhere from seven to 10 points. But then, this dead-heat poll is the most recent one, with the next-most recent being a week old. This close to an election, a week is a lifetime.
It's too soon to say if this is a trend. There is still time for that large category of undecideds to pick a side (How can you be a "likely voter" and still not know who you're voting for?) and for October surprises to drop. Just over five weeks to go!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member