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Messages From Three Conservatives. 2. Pat Caddell

Among my more annoying personal traits is my habit of remembering people's predictions. A prediction doesn't have to be accurate to be wise or informed, but when people repeatedly get certain things wrong, it often reveals a flaw in their world view. Charles Krauthammer, for instance, is brilliant, especially in his analysis of foreign policy, but he's routinely mistaken about what the American electorate will do next. I suspect he has too high-minded a view of the public. A good man's failing, but still...

One of the most accurate political predictors I know is former Democrat pollster Pat Caddell. The lovably irascible Caddell has such disdain for the low intelligence of politicians, voters, strategists and the human race in general that he usually knows exactly which way they're going to break. Which is why his message at the Restoration Weekend hosted by the David Horowitz Freedom Center struck me as important.

Caddell is warning conservatives that a change is coming, a big change. Voter dissatisfaction with our broken government is reaching critical mass and his recent polling suggests that the people are sending a warning to politicians of both parties:  "We're coming — and we're coming for you." Caddell feels that a center right politician who bids fair to fix not so much this or that specific problem, but the mechanism of government itself, has a real chance of establishing a new and lasting majority. It could even be time for a third party to arise and take down Democrats and Republicans alike. Again this will require a center right, not far right, candidate, according to Caddell.