Isaac May Pose Major Evacuation Dilemma
Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn caused a sensation earlier Wednesday when he told CNN that “absolutely we’re prepared to” call off next week’s Republican National Convention if Tropical Storm Isaac makes it necessary. Buckhorn is a Democrat, so of course this caused immediate talk of possible political motives:
Buckhorn is an Obama fan. He said of a Barack Obama speech in June, “The president laid out a blueprint today that will create value-added jobs, grow our economy and tackle the deficit. He made it clear to us in Tampa that he has the right vision to guide this nation’s economic future.” If there is legitimate danger to the population of Tampa, he certainly has the responsibility to cancel the convention. But if he’s too quick on the trigger, we’ll all know why.
The trouble is, the way Isaac’s path and intensity forecasts are evolving, it may not be all that easy to differentiate “legitimate danger” from “too quick on the trigger.” It is entirely possible that an evacuation will be absolutely necessary — and yet will look completely silly in retrospect, at least superficially.
Here’s the thing. Isaac is presently expected to basically parallel the northeast coast of Cuba, then basically parallel the west coast of Florida. That forecast could still change drastically — computer models Wednesday have been calling for scenarios as divergent as a New Orleans catastrophe and a Category 4 strike on Florida’s east coast, and plenty of other possibilities to boot — but if Isaac stays on the basic path that the NHC is currently projecting, this is going to be an unusually tricky wicket for forecasters and planners, made even trickier by the RNC.
If Isaac follows roughly the expected track over the next 72 hours, I suspect that the forecasts of U.S. landfall location and intensity will remain highly uncertain, unusually late in the game, simply because of the storm’s angle of approach and proximity to land. With this large storm approaching at the expected angle after hitting Hispaniola and Cuba, the Tampa Bay area — and other places in Florida — would be forced to make important preparedness decisions (including, possibly, whether to postpone or cancel the RNC) at a time when very small variations in the storm’s track could lead to very large differences in outcome.
Imagine, for instance, that it’s 8:00 PM Saturday, and Isaac is hugging the coast of Cuba at the spot presently forecast by the NHC:
At that point, Isaac would likely be a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm, having strengthened somewhat Thursday and Friday but then weakened due to interaction with Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. It would be poised to weaken further, maybe to a middling tropical storm, as it moves west over or near Cuba. So we’d be talking about a weakening storm (weakening temporarily…probably), with an uncertain track, triggering potential widespread and politically charged evacuations.
I doubt that the average seasoned Tampa/Florida residents are going to do any kind of evacuations unless it’s a high end cat 3,125 mph and up.
Too many people remember the Super Dome of death and misery in New Orleans and will choose to hunker down at home instead of with the dregs of humanity in some FEMA approved hole.
Being told by the overbearing and ever increasingly abusive police that homeowners cannot return until the ex-spurts make their asinine decision that it’s OK to return is another reason people will not heed the warnings.
With a cat 4 or 5 it’s going to be catastrophic anywhere near this laughing Issac.
This is a very interesting situation. I’d say let the organizers of the convention decide whether or not the convention will go forward, not the Tampa mayor. If there is a disaster or people’s lives are put at risk, then we look to the organizers for responsibility. But perhaps FEMA or the Guard can save the day. Tampa? In hurricane season? Should’ve picked a better city like Salt Lake or Denver.
I think they should have a much better idea after we see how the storm interacts with Hispaniola. That should be Saturday. Right now the forecast is only showing tropical storm conditions for Tampa on Monday. Of course that could cause plenty of problems with incoming flights. If it were my call, and what do I know other than being a native who has gone through my share of storms, I’d just watch for now. Plenty could change.
I’ve lived in Tampa all my life and my feeling on this one is that it will be a rainmaker but not much else. Unfortunately, the Downtown Tampa area is right on the water and a storm surge would make travel next to impossible. South Tampa, which is where downtown is located, is extremely prone to flooding, even during heavy thunderstorms. I don’t see an evacuation happening, to be honest. I have never seen that happen since I’ve lived here. Due to the way the winds work in the Gulf most all the storms I’ve seen that are initially aimed right at Tampa eventually drift northwest to Louisiana or Texas. Of course anything can happen but that’s my take on it based on experience.
The latest track at 2PM puts Isaac path further westward meaning further away from convention center. No think the weather department is planning for a big powerful storm, although if and when it enters the Florida Straits and strides over the Gulf Stream warm waters Isaac could of course turn bad but my dart board model says Isaac not hit Tampa, maybe little extra rain on the convention to add to the downpour from NBC, ABC, CBS.
Part of the problem is Isaac, as now projected, will threaten the entire Florida Gulf Coast eventually. That complicates the decision of evacuating to the north for those in the peninsula because it would cause conflict with those living further north of you. Evacuating to the east interior of the state will also be difficult because of limited facilities available.
I certainly don’t envy the task of any of the officials in the potential path. The memories of Katrina are still fresh and the inclination to be safe rather than sorry will be strong.
What the mayor should do is call on the Obama campaign to cancel Biden’s Monday visit. Simply tell them, that local law enforcement will not be available to assist or coordinate since they have real work to do
And the RNC should stand ready to highlight Biden’s disruption of safety in the name of ungentlemanly politics.
Here is my take from the Weather Channel:
The convention center is 6 feet above sea level.
The press corp center is 4 feet above sea level.
The numerous protesters and occupiers are outside.
Let her rip.
Why worry? Everyone should just sit back and relax, safe in the knowledge that the FEMA and other agencies of the Federal government will save us and keep us safe. It really worked out well for citizens of New Orleans.
Not only should the convention be postponed (in order to fall AFTER the Dem’s), but it should also be moved to friendlier Florida country…like maybe Tallahassee. The storm is the perfect excuse to do this, plus avoid getting blamed if anyone loses property or life during the storm during the convention (a very likely scenario).
Here’s your chance Romney, don’t blow it (no pun).
Well if Buckhorn was really the evil demoncrat he would be saing “Come on in. The weathers fine!”
What idiot scheduled a major convention in Tampa at the height of the hurricane season?
Find that person and make sure he gets good as asking about fries with that order.