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By Stephen Green

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The Bistromath Economy

July 8, 2011 - 12:18 pm - by Stephen Green

“The numbers, they are awful.”

9.2% — unemployment rate for June.

0.1% — increase since May.

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16.2% — underemployment rate for June.

0.4% — increase since May.

8% — conventional wisdom for the maximum allowable unemployment rate to win reelection.

15 — remaining BLS reporting months before Election Day.

255,000 — net jobs that must be created each and every month to reach 8%.

18,000 — net jobs created last month.

44,000 — downward revision to April and May job creation.

3,825,000 — total net jobs needed before Election Day.

2,100,000 — jobs created in the last fifteen months.

11.2% — unemployment rate if the labor participation rate was as high as it was in January, 2009.

290,000 — best monthly net jobs gain during Obama administration.

231,000 — real best gain, minus temporary Census hiring.

14 — months since best monthly gain.

1% — decrease in DJIA in the opening minute of trading, day that jobs figures released.

$1,200,000,000,000 — cost of ARRA “stimulus,” with interest.

1,900,000 — net jobs lost since ARRA was signed.

2 — quantitative easing programs since 2008.

~$2,000,000,000,000 — total of first QE program during Great Recession.

$600,000,000,000 — total of second QE program, just ended.

40% — increase in federal debt since January, 2009.

30% — increase in annual federal spending since January, 2009.

20% — decrease in federal revenues since January, 2009.

12% — decline in value of US dollar since January, 2009.

37% — increase in number of Americans on food stamps since January, 2009.

62% — increase in Misery index since January, 2009.

800 — days since the Senate passed a budget.

1.9% — last quarterly GDP increase.

2.5% — consensus projection for last quarterly GPD increase.

2.7% — official White House projection.

3.0% or better — GDP growth needed to dent unemployment.

3.6% — official White House GDP growth projection for 2012.

2.7% — IMF GDP growth projection for 2012.

30% — federal debt held by public as percentage of GDP, 2005.

60% — federal debt held by public as percentage of GDP, 2010.

180% — federal debt held by public as percentage of GDP, CBO estimate, 2035.

0% — odds of current path being sustainable.

UPDATE: Instalanched. Thanks.

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35 Comments, 26 Threads, 8 Trackbacks

  1. Zaphod, Engage the SEP** drive!

    (Somebody Elses Problem)

    • Paul of Alexandria

      The SEP field was a camouflage field. We’d need to paint the economy pink for it to work in this case.

  2. 2. Jenn

    Frank beat me to the obvious SEP reference. :)

  3. 3. jd

    Steve,
    It appears that there is only one possible conclusion to derive from the above numbers:

    Mathematics is now Clearly Racist!

    • Mathematics has been bigoted for quite some time now. Remember geometry class? Remember how all the lines were straight? Why were there no lines of other sexual orientations, I ask you??

      • So, what does a queer line look like? I won’t even ask about questioning.

        • mrsizer

          I have a shirt with one of those “curve ahead” highway signs on it with the caption “straight as an arrow”. Does that count?

  4. Interesting look at how much worse it would be for Obama without Texas holding up the nation, Atlas-style: http://www.willisms.com/archives/2011/07/trivia_tidbit_o_934.html

  5. 5. LondonTrader

    39.9 Weeks – Average length of time that unemployed have been looking for work.
    The previous high since the war was 21.2 in 1983.

  6. 6. rbj

    I’m gonna need more vodka.

  7. 7. Dave (in MA)

    Man, just how big are those cocktail napkins?

  8. 8. Buck O'Fama

    Unprecedented!

  9. Well, it’s going to be a change of pace, anyway. Trying to kill local deer with my pistol, gathering pine nuts, eating things I think might be edible, and trying to stay hidden from the marauding hoards. Let’s see, if I wear a snowsuit, I suppose I might make it through the first winter. Not sure how to start a fire by rubbing sticks, unfortunately.

  10. 10. Matt Orr

    Wow. That’s quite the list.

    Thanks a lot for compiling that, Steve.

  11. 11. patrick1

    These numbers are totally unexpected!

    • arhooley

      Here’s a totally expected number: Obama approval 44%.

  12. @Wacky Herman – lines are only straight in Euclidean geometry. In non-Euclidean geometry lines have always been not straight, NTTAWWT.

  13. 13. Werbaz Neutron

    Obama CANNOT POSSIBLY GET THERE FROM HERE!!!!!!

  14. 14. bill

    Sources?

  15. 15. Lin W

    It’s *unexpected* — starting with “The economy we inherited was *unexpectedly* worse than we thought..”

    So, we’re giving over planning to some bozo (is that racist against people with red hair and big feet?) who can not see that 5 minus 7 will *always* give a negative number. No matter how much he wants to blame the person who used the pencil and touched the paper the paper before he got his sweaty hands on it.

    I fear for my children, and their (someday, maybe) grandchildren. Because the difference between what’s going on now, and what went on during the Depression that my Dad told me about living through (he passed away in Dec at the age of 96) is that people *then* were able to do things for themselves. They planted gardens, raised chickens and rabbits in their back yards for eggs and meat, the kids hunted squirrels if they got hungry during the day using sling shots. (Note: my Dad swore that he knew, from experience, that there’s not much breast meat on a robin, but it’s very sweet).

    Try to do *any* of those things today. People are getting arrested for planting vegetables in their front yards. I’m sure there are laws against raising chickens and rabbits for food in most localities (not to mention what PETA would do to us!). And can you imagine the outrage over hunting squirrels, robins and sparrows???

    The numbers tell an awful story — but the numbers of people waiting around for government help are a klaxon warning for our Republic, I’m afraid.

    • jsallison

      PETA? Just another loud, annoying source of Long Pig.

  16. 16. Old Patriot

    Lin W: I have a small garden in my back yard. It won’t do much to put food on my table, but I’ve got an income that feeds me and pays most of the bills. The garden is to teach my 6-YO how to do it, so if he ever needs to, he can. I grew up poor, and both parents were poor through the Depression. I was taught how to “live off the land” if I have to. As for people coming around to arrest me, they’d better be a darned sight heavier-armed than I will be. I do feel for people who live in large cities. They’ll have to farm any open land available, and stand guard over that land day and night to keep scavengers (both two- and four-footed) away.

  17. 17. M. Simon

    The Reimann manifolds need porting and polishing.

  18. 18. Greg

    Funny, I always thought Obamas economic policy relied more heavily on infinite improbability.

  19. 19. arhooley

    Okay, I think I get it.

    The good news: Obama is unelectable.

    The bad news: That’s because come Nov 2012 there will be nothing but a smoking crater where the United States used to be.

  20. 20. forrest

    I’m snapping my fingers for the waiter so that we may change our course before our economy crashes into the sun like a “Disaster Area” band spaceship.

  21. 21. jetty

    Obama will somehow cancel the election in 2012. Really, it’s his only chance.

  22. 22. cfbleachers

    The grift that keeps on grifting.

    Of course, being that this is all so inherited AND unexpected, I was just wondering…how does that work, exactly.

    If you inherited a problem, shouldn’t the problem be expected? If it’s a new problem or if the imposed solutions to the problem make it worse…then, it is NOT the “inheritance” that caused the “unexpected” result….and it’s a misdirection to suggest it.

    What causes the “unexpected” reaction…is solely that your “solutions” suck. You no longer can act “surprised” at the “inherited” issues…you have been proposing and implementing a myriad of very, very, very expensive “solutions”. At this point…conflating “inheritance” and “unexpected consequences” in the same thought pattern is a non sequitor.

    And, finally….if you aim a full frontal assault on business, big business, mid-market business, small business…in a hippie wet dream, FUBAR, small c communist, “redistribution” ignoramafest….and then act surprised that the entire system goes into bunker mentality paralysis…you are too fracking stupid to be allowed to make change for a dollar….much less making this much change TO the dollar.

  23. I hope that President Obama’s chances of reelection are 0^2012; Deep Thought or even the Heart of Gold computer could figure out what that amounts to, but for a hint zero multiplied by itself an infinite number of times is still zero.

  24. 24. kender

    Obama could conceivably pull the economy out of the toilet IF he had access to the improbability drive. Of course the odds of even that working are something like 14.3 trillion to 1 and are growing at many billions a day

  25. 26. Erbo

    The economy is definitely in one whole joojooflop situation. (Excuse my language.)