Since our last edition of Hillary Watch 2016 posted in early May, a political tsunami has occurred in our nation’s capital. And to prove just how much that tsunami has altered the political landscape, remember it was only the Benghazi whistle blower hearings that were front and center at that time.
Now consider how many scandals, revelations, and leaks have befallen the Obama administration since then, with no break in between.
Sex! Lies! Horny Ambassadors! Fixers! Cover-ups!
It’s all so juicy and easy for the general public to understand (as opposed to those bor-ring Benghazi talking points).
Watch as Hillary’s famous Benghazi hearing question, “What difference does it make?” is sure to be asked again and turned on her as more details are revealed. After all, this was her domain and these were her people so the “I know nothing” defense will not fly.
OK, so we have now established that there will be some rough patches ahead for Hillary 2016. However, 2016 is decades away in political dog years. As noted above, what has happened politically since early May is a fine example of political dog years in action. One day, one week, one month, is enough time for a 180 degree turnaround in politics.
It is a given that circumstances will change, but there is one question that will not change and that question will have the most impact on Hillary’s 2016 prospects.
That question is, “Can Hillary win Obama’s third term?”
Let’s examine the recent record for some examples.
Daddy Bush won Reagan’s third term in 1988.
Al Gore won the popular vote for Clinton’s third term in 2000.
John McCain did not and could not win George W. Bush’s third term in 2008.
So, that brings us up to The Question of 2016.
As a loyal Republican who will vote for whomever is running against Hillary in 2016, my answer to The Question is “Yes she can.” Republicans must assume she can and fight all the harder for the following reasons:
Hillary as the “first female president” is real, appealing, gigantic, important, enormous, and the media will turn it into a mantra.
I have written about this mantra before and I will mention it again and again. For once this huge social movement starts rolling, a heavy-set white man from New Jersey, or two first-term senators from Kentucky or Florida will not stand a chance.
That brings me to the second reason behind, “Yes she can,” which also happens to be a question that I have raised in numerous past Hillary Watch 2016 installments.
How in 2016 does any Republican presidential candidate win 270 electoral votes?
It is a question that must be asked and examined but the facts make the answer difficult with so many demographic groups such as women, youth, Hispanics, African-Americans, Asians, unions, government employees, gays, and teachers all aligned against the GOP.
Furthermore, Hillary’s favorable/unfavorable Gallup poll ratings are going down and up, from an early 2013 sky-high favorable of 66% to a still very respectable 58%. Contrast that to her current unfavorable rating, rising from a low of 29% to 39%. Still all VERY ACCEPTABLE for a nationally known and somewhat polarizing figure.
Hillary’s new Twitter account also made a big splash this week indicating she is gearing up and ready for the modern age.
And with the modern age comes Clinton-era nostalgia that will be re-packaged, re-modeled and re-branded as Hillary is positioned to win Bill’s “third term.”
Now this is key to answering the major question I have posed and right out of Mad Men. “If you don’t like the question change the conversation.” And here is how Hillary could do just that; she could win Obama’s third term while running against Obama using this argument:
We, as a nation, were all hoodwinked in 2008. Obama offered us hope and change and after Bush we were all so desperate for anything new and shiny.
So we made a mistake…twice. The first time I tried, I cried, and I came pretty close, even warned you about him taking phone calls at 3 AM. But it was not my time so new and shiny won out, first in 2008 and then again in 2012. So let’s reset the clock and now in 2016 I will do for this nation what I was going to do in 2008.
Seriously folks, you might hear something like this from Hillary in 2016.
Hillary must run for Obama’s third term, but Team Clinton, along with the media, will make us think that it’s really Bill’s third term for which she is running.