As Allahpundit notes, Major Garrett buries the lede in his race wrap-up. Get past a riff on four big issues that may impact the remaining three weeks of the campaign, and you come to this news nugget.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.
According to RealClearPolitics, Obama currently has 201 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But that doesn’t give Obama electoral votes from Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), or Wisconsin (10). Of these three, Romney advisers believe that only one, Wisconsin, is even theoretically winnable. Obama advisers believe they will win all three. That would put Obama at 247 electoral votes. If Obama wins Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), and New Hampshire (4) he would claim 281 electoral votes. That means he could afford to lose New Hampshire and Nevada and still eke out a razor-thin victory of 271 electoral votes.
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes.
That would get us to the map I drew up last week.
David Plouffe put on his bravest fact after last night’s debate and tried to demoralize Romney supporters by saying that there is no way that Romney gets to 270. Plouffe said that Romney had no credible path to get there. But then the Obama campaign quietly pulled four swing states off their own map and started circling the wagons in the rest.
The fact is, the map is narrowing for Obama while it is expanding for Romney.
And then there’s the national polling trend. On Fox this afternoon, Karl Rove offered up another nugget: If it’s mid-October and you’re above 51% in Gallup, you don’t lose.
Today’s Gallup numbers: Romney 51, Obama 45.
Now let’s take a quick stroll through media bias. If you flipped that Gallup number and had a story detailing how Romney was pulling out of four key states while talking up nonsense like binders full o’ women and whatever point Biden tried making today, the media would crash hard on a “Romney is desperate and sinking” meme.
Has the media put two and two together on the Obama campaign today?
In my little redneck corner of Florida (Space Coast), there is a noticeable decline in signs and stickers for Oblah-blah. Even the local diehard Obama fan finally took down his permanent yard sign after the first debate and hasn’t put it back up.
Really? How interesting — I guess I never imagined that a person who would be inclined to plant a political sign in their yard in the first place would be so capricious as to remove it prior to the election!
The very unfortunate reality in my area, (the famous) “Colonial” Williamsburg — there is a veritable cornucopia of Obama signs. Is disheartening to say the least as Virginia used to be solid Republican country.
Now the only real reason that VA has shifted is due to the northern-VA DC suburbs — so that still leaves one to wonder why down here in more conservative “middle-VA” there exists a rainstorm of Obama signs. I suspect that it’s also because this is a college town (2nd oldest University in the USA after Harvard, William & Mary) — and I live in a well-populated professor neighborhood.
Of course my Dad is also a Professor Emeritus of Physics at William & Mary — but he and I both crossed the Rubicon on 9/11 to the “right” side.
–FF
Thousands of educated and highly trained NASA Space Coast workers have gone jobless in the past 4 years. Many are still looking for work. NASA slowly withers away without a clear goal like the Moon. Would anyone in their right mind vote to continue this?
After all, the function of NASA is to make Muslims feel important, no? https://www.google.com/search?s?hl=en&sugexp=les%3Beqn%2Cfixedpos%3Dfalse%2Cboost_normal%3D40%2Cboost_high%3D40%2Ccconf%3D1.2%2Cmin_length%3D2%2Crate_low%3D0.035%2Crate_high%3D0.035%2Csecond_pass%3Dfalse%2Cignore_bad_origquery%3Dtrue&gs_nf=3&cp=0&tok=V8nMVWSeNASFvr32XRyypA&pq=nasa%20muslim%20outreach&gs_id=1qf&xhr=t&q=nasa%20muslim%20outreach&pf=p&client=firefox-a&hs=UVe&rls=org.mozilla:en-US%3Aofficial&sclient=psy-ab&oq=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.r_qf.&bpcl=35466521&biw=1280&bih=574&ech=1&psi=IHiAUPPyKOyH0QH9u4CAAg.1350596644626.1&emsg=NCSR&noj=1&ei=IHiAUPPyKOyH0QH9u4CAAg
I drove from northeast KY to Dayton, OH and back a few days ago, about 150 miles each way. I counted campaign yard signs along the way. The tally?
Romney/Ryan – 36
Obama/Biden – 03 (yes, three O/B signs is all I saw)
Josh Mandel – 11
Sherrod Brown – 0 (yes, that’s a zero)
Here in southeast OH, I’ve seen the following;
Obama/Biden; 1 sign, 1 bumper sticker
Romney/Ryan; 4 signs, 8 bumper stickers
Josh Mandel (running against Sherrod Brown for Senate); 20+ signs, about the same number of bumper stickers
Sherrod Brown; 1 sign- in the same yard as the Obama/Biden sign.
I suspect most people are like me. I hear a lot of dissatisfaction with Obama, Biden, and Brown. But very few people want to put Romney/Ryan signs out due to vandalism. (My GOP signs were defaced and/or stolen several times in both 2008 and 2010.)
I also have heard people say, “Whenever a pollster calls me, I hang up. Because I don’t know who he’s working for, or what might happen if I admit I don’t support the President”.
So far, I haven’t heard anybody say anything like that about Romney. Although I have heard a few of the more far-out “progressive” types around here saying that he’s Lucifuge Rofocale, if not Lucifer himself. Considering that most consider themselves proudly atheist, I find their invocation of Christian demonology somewhere between ironic and amusing.
On the plus side, few of them are still claiming that The One is the most brilliant man ever to be President.
I suspect there is a lot of support for Romney and Ryan around here. The fact that people are apparently afraid to say it except in very private circumstances makes me wonder- when did we become a third world banana republic?
clear ether
eon
Out here in the Blue Washington sea, I am seeing more faded 08 Hope and Change bumper stickers than new ones. It seems most that were Obots the last time are strangely silent this time.
OK I am in a Navy town, but taking a class at the UW and there are no political signs around the U district part of Seattle. Some lady last month stood 3 days at the center of Campus and only got some 30 people to register to vote. In 08 there were probably thousands.
What to do whenever you see an Obama sticker on a parked car
You can do something similar if you see an Obama yard sign, by leaving a sticky note on the front door.
At the rate Obama is conceding states he may as well concede the election too. Brings a warm fuzzy feeling doesn’t it? I hear California may be in play if things keep going the way they are. Thats 51 electoral votes. The bigger they are the harder they fall.
When an economy is in free fall, and the world is exploding, due to much of the incumbent’s moves, then surely most people – one would hope – will want to change leaders.
Aside from die hard ideologues, few have a reason to stick by their man. So, the main ones sticking to their guns are the truly ignorant & shiftless(free cell phones and welfare checks are hard for some to resist)or the absolutely malevolent.
Those who want him to win also have dreams of the U.S. becoming a socialist country, and desire the empowerment of Islamists too. The two now go hand in hand, even if their end goals are divergent -
http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/10/07/when-authentic-revolutionaries-hold-the-reins-of-american-power-centers-via-the-most-radical-regime-in-u-s-history-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/
Yea, it’s their internals! They know those states are gone & the only way to stem the tide, is to throw everything at Mi.,Pa. & Wi. Wisconsin doesn’t look good, but it’s reasonable to believe they could intimidate enough to pull it out. I don’t believe they can stem the tide! The local media isn’t as easy to control as the inside the Beltway types. If the Romney campaign would act a little more like Newt & less like McCain2008, they would win this thing going away! The public has already seen the media bias and are aware of the untrustworthy nature of their incestuous relationship with the Obama re-election efforts. Here’s how they could take down the Obama Enemy media and Win: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw
God Bless America!
You racist Republican gringos will soon be abandoning Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado & Florida.
We will bury the GOP.
You racist Republican gringos are shrinking, aging and dying off.
We are the future. We will bury you. Your time is over.
We will cut off your Medicare and Social Security, and laugh while you beg for mercy. You pathetic gringos have dug your own grave. We are capitalizing on your stupidity. Adios gringos. Viva La Raza!
Haaaaahahaha
That is some excellent sarcasm.
……….It WAS sarcasm, no?
You have no chance any more GRINGOS. None at all. Your empty strutting peacock, your el Presidente appoints the head of the IRS and is the commander of your armed forces and I now own him. I had to pay him muchos dolares as he is very greedy man and does not seem to think that he can ever have too much money. You are now tostada quemada. What on Earth were you thinking when you elected a traidor as your el Presidente? Were you all completely drunk? Way too much Tequila on election day? Oh well, your loss, my gain.
Once we get our amnesty, we will all come to your country. We will all have at least 10 ninos with mucho tax credits from you Gringo smucks and in a generation or two we will overwhelm and deport most of you Gringos! We will start with Arizona after your el Presidente moves federal troops there to arrest their governor and Joe Arpaio and hand the deed over to us and then we will move rapido from there all across the rest of your 57 states to take them over too. Some of you, if you learn Spanish real well, we might let you stay to pick our lettuce or mow our lawns or take care of OUR children in what used to be your houses. Those who don’t learn Spanish will be deported to Alaska. That is until Al Gore’s global warming heats things up and we want Alaska too, then we will deport you all to New Orleans. It will probably all be under water by then anyway.
So give it up and LEARN SPANISH! You should probably all buy Mexican flags too and fly them in your front yard and on your pickup trucks. If you already have an American flag there it is alright if you keep it, as long as you fly it upside down and below our great Mexican flag. Now repeat after me – I pledge allegiance to the flag of the Estados Unidos del Mucho Grande Mexico, and to the Republic for which it use to stand, one nation under me, with everything for us, and nothing anymore for you except to pay mucho mucho mucho more taxes for our tax credits. And remember Gringos, APRENDER EL ESPANOL!!!
hilarious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Too clearly satire. Next time try adding spelling mistakes and grammatical errors.
Feh, the detritus of Spanish colonialism has done *so well* for so many. Central and South America have struggled for centuries to get out from under the caudillos of crap.
Forgot to mention, I got yer La Raza *right here*
Pendejo! I hear after Romney is elected, there will be a similar program to Eisenhower’s operation Wetback. All the lazy, parasitic criminal gueys like you, will be back in Mexico!!! Que Marveloso!!
Long time no see, usted imbécil racista.
Now go away. Again.
clear ether
eon
If Obama’s pulling out of Virginia, that’s news to me. He’s scheduled to appear at George Mason University later this week.
“Obama’s pulling out of Virginia”
And she ain’t happy!
Wouldn’t want to “punish” Virginia with another Obama.
He held a rally last at George Mason last on 10/5/12, which was TWO WEEKS AGO. He’s wasting his time. I was driving around the George Mason campus the other day and the neighborhoods around the campus have way more Romney/Ryan signs. Maybe he’s trying this time to get a few more students to skip class to attend his rally.
I drove though Washington DC yesterday and took the time to look for campaign signs. I saw no Romney signs. However, I only saw three Obama signs, one bumper sticker, one 12″x18″ sign on and storefront window, and one yard sign. In 2008, I could not even begin to count the numerous Obama signs along that same route.
When a strongly pro-Democrat city like DC has so few campaign signs, I believe that this is a real indication about how the election will really turn out.
Now before anyone says “they’re just not interested in politics this year”, there were a plethora of signs up for the various local office democrat candidates, just not for the president.
And, it’s a “company town”.
Its a setup I tell you- watch for the anti-Michelle Rhee type of DC resident to wash ashore in Arlington and Fairfax counties on election daywith a Time Warner or Dish installation order in one hand and a truncheon in the other.
Crud. I’m in Toledo, so I’m going to get hit hard by both sides.
Now yous knows where from we get the exclamation, “Holy Toledo!”.
Like PJ Tattler, my map also has Romney with 257. It includes Colorado, Florida, NC & VA. It does not include any of Obama’s ‘circle the wagon’ states. I’m concerned though that New Hamphshire & Iowa, two possibilities for Romney, cannot put him over the top. He’s still going to need a Nevada, Wisconsin or one of the bigger states like Michigan or Pennsylvania.
But if any of those big Midwestern states, he might just win all of them.
I mean if he takes Wisconsin, we may be looking at a blow-out. But if it’s a
close race, maybe Iowa, Wisconsin & New Hampshire or Nevada can do the trick.
This race may be historic in that a Republican might win without Ohio.
I think debate performances can’t re-elect Obama right now. But his ground organization might still be able to.
Iowa and New Hampshire are starting to loom large. They are states Romney should
be able to win. Does he have the ground organization to do it?
Romney has to find a way around Ohio – if he can’t win there. That route must involve Iowa.
They better abandon North Carolina ASAP.
Charlotte left to pick up $12.5 million tab from the DNC Convention, no help from Obama nor the DNC.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/10/17/3603482/dnc-host-committee-came-up-125.html
The Convention/Party borrowed money 12.5 mil from Private Companies in North Carolina. The City of Charlotte will not be left picking up the tab.
That being said; The DNC mishandled the borrowed funds, caused themselves a deficit with no plan to pay the funds back. Sound familiar?
Romney’s up six with less than three weeks to go. The race is all but over for the Obamee team and they know it. Tuesday’s debate will have zero effect on the polls, that ship sailed two weeks ago. At this point the only factors are turnout and urban voter fraud…
Beware! A six point lead in Gallup sounds like a big margin. It isn’t, precisely because of the Electoral College and the peculiar dynamics of the “swing states.”
“Swing states” tend to be that because their allegiance can be won by whoever promises them more swag. The nature of the bribe will depend upon local industries and economic conditions. Should the Obama campaign’s top figures oh-so-quietly approach the governors and key legislators in, say, Ohio with promises of subsidies and subventions for Ohio’s many struggling smokestack firms, and combine that with a hard-nosed “ground game” and just the right amount of vote fraud, Ohio could go for Obama in defiance of the polls.
Similar considerations apply to all the other “swing states,” so Don’t Get Cocky!
Latest Gallup poll on Drudge right now, 10-18-12: Romney 52%, Obama 45%. Not to be cocky here, but Mitt has to keep the fight going to Obama and not relent. We know Obama will win the next debate; the Lamestream Media have already declared him the winner. It’s going to be made known one second after the debate is over. This story has already been written. It’s still not too late for the “October surprise”. What does Obama and the despicable Axelrod have up his sleeve?
The campaign to defeat Obama is campaigning in MI, WI, IO, PA and OH in an effort to help deliver 70 elec votes to the Romney/Ryan ticket. This new TV AD will be airing in the mid-west. It says what many of us have wanted the national campaign to say. Enjoy it and share it a-round…HINT: It mentions over 100 rounds of golf.
http://shout.lt/c5cJ
Keep the faith,
Elizabeth B. Letchworth
GradeGov founder
Since 2/3 of undecided tend to vote against the incumbent, most of the tossup states will go to Romney. Probably going to be a long night for Obama. Beware the October Surprise, I’m sure the Chicago way has a lot of life in it still.
Personally, I’m waiting for the “after the election” riots when Romney wins.
Just a note here. In the last two weeks I have spent nine days in Ohio. The house phone was ringing off the hook with campaign messages. The television stations were running Romney advertisements, BUT I never saw any Obama ads, not even one. Does anyone think that is unusual? Is it possible that with the generous early voting system that the Ohio race is already over? Something is really wrong here.
Is that like when Karl Rove said we were all dumb in 2008, that he said he had “The Math” guaranteeing McCain’s election?