Is the Obama Campaign Abandoning Four Key Swing States?
October 17, 2012 - 2:50 pm
As Allahpundit notes, Major Garrett buries the lede in his race wrap-up. Get past a riff on four big issues that may impact the remaining three weeks of the campaign, and you come to this news nugget.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.
According to RealClearPolitics, Obama currently has 201 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But that doesn’t give Obama electoral votes from Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), or Wisconsin (10). Of these three, Romney advisers believe that only one, Wisconsin, is even theoretically winnable. Obama advisers believe they will win all three. That would put Obama at 247 electoral votes. If Obama wins Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), and New Hampshire (4) he would claim 281 electoral votes. That means he could afford to lose New Hampshire and Nevada and still eke out a razor-thin victory of 271 electoral votes.
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes.
That would get us to the map I drew up last week.
David Plouffe put on his bravest fact after last night’s debate and tried to demoralize Romney supporters by saying that there is no way that Romney gets to 270. Plouffe said that Romney had no credible path to get there. But then the Obama campaign quietly pulled four swing states off their own map and started circling the wagons in the rest.
The fact is, the map is narrowing for Obama while it is expanding for Romney.
And then there’s the national polling trend. On Fox this afternoon, Karl Rove offered up another nugget: If it’s mid-October and you’re above 51% in Gallup, you don’t lose.
Today’s Gallup numbers: Romney 51, Obama 45.
Now let’s take a quick stroll through media bias. If you flipped that Gallup number and had a story detailing how Romney was pulling out of four key states while talking up nonsense like binders full o’ women and whatever point Biden tried making today, the media would crash hard on a “Romney is desperate and sinking” meme.
Has the media put two and two together on the Obama campaign today?