Iranian Carnival (aka “elections”) Redux
The Basij — the radical thugs who beat up Iranians for violations of the dress code and other sins against the official version of Islam — will be voting early and often in Iran on Friday. Groups of them have been organized to go from polling place to polling place, “voting” en bloc in accordance with the foreordained results decided by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s Politburo. The official numbers will claim a very large turnout, which the tyrants will interpret as a ringing endorsement of the Islamic Republic.
Totalitarian regimes love elections. Stalin loved them, Hitler organized boffo movies about them, Mussolini stood in the blazing sunshine of Piazza Venezia to rally the faithful, Fidel’s campaign speeches famously droned on for hours and hours. Saddam used to win upwards of 90%. To be sure, referenda are more popular with supreme leaders than actual elections of candidates, because the whole thing is reduced to a simple “Do you love me, or do you love me not?” instead of having to sort out scores of would-be members of the ruling class. But the totalitarians solve this fairly neatly by ensuring that no maverick makes it onto the lists. That way, it doesn’t matter who “wins,” since the voting doesn’t matter anyway. Everything is top-down.
The Iranian regime, given its remarkable capacity to screw up most everything (above all the country itself, which vies with the Soviet Union at its worst for a wrecked system), every now and then fails to get it right and some real votes get counted. That’s what happened in June 2009, when Mir Hossein Mousavi — the leader of the Green Movement — got more votes than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the regime had to scramble to produce results that gave the victory to Ahmadinejad. They did it so ham-handedly that everybody saw what was happening, and months of demonstrations followed.
The regime is palpably worried about tomorrow’s events, to the point where the supreme leader’s son Mojtaba Khamenei quietly visited Mousavi — held for over a year along with his firebrand wife in solitary confinement in a house in Tehran — to try to strike a deal by which Mousavi would somehow come to terms with the regime. Mousavi refused, and this was followed by an amazing telephone conversation between Mousavi and his kids, beginning with the Green leader’s announcement that he wasn’t changing his mind and that the upcoming carnival should be boycotted.
Lots of people will be compelled to vote — government workers and military employees, for example, will be accompanied to the voting booths by overseers — and it will be a while before “real numbers” on turnout become known. But it’s already clear to anyone who cares to see that this carnival demonstrates that the Iranian people don’t like this regime and that the regime knows it.
Can’t wait to hear the Obama administration’s “take” on its sought-after negotiating partner’s behavior. Of late there’s been a huge disinformation campaign in Washington, designed to convince us that a) there really isn’t the slightest chance of Iran getting The Bomb in the near future, and b) anything the Israelis might do to attack the nuclear-weapons-program-you-know-the-one-nobody-should-worry-about would only make things worse.
In other words, the White House wants to be left alone to make its glorious deal with a regime that kills Americans every day. And stages carnivals for its own amusement.
For those who are still wondering, it doesn’t take much to conclude as to why I have more confidence in Daniel Hannan than in the current occupier of the White House Oval Office.
About the only reason why I ascribe the amount of credibility to BHO is because of the harm he can unleash, whether by the law of unintended consequences, or by design.
Great article. Thanks Dr. ML.
Is it OK if we call the IR show to gather support of leftists and their media, Erection?
I wonder if people will protest this election like the last one? Could this be the moment for the general uprising? The Iranians are seeing what is happening in Syria, so I wonder if the will go for it and try to overthrow the mullahs this time around? Sad to say, I think they will not. I think the Iranian people see what is happening to the Syrian people who are protesting and may not think it’s worth it. I really wish they would protest, because it would put Obama in the exact same position he was in in 2009. Only this time, it is AFTER Obama himself supported similar uprisings in Egypt and Libya. I wish the Iranian people the best, but if they really want their freedom, they are going to have to fight for it.
Good article and I agree. It doesn’t take a crystal ball to know that Washington’s reaction to the re-election of the current Iranian regime will be positive, no matter how that re-election occurs.
Write in “Santa Claus” as your choice!!!!
Santa is the Twelfth Imam!!!!
Las Vegas is giving infinity-to-one odds you know who will win. I put down 2 cents on the off chance I might win the entire solar system. If I do there’s gonna be some changes.
Remember that the guiding principle of Obama is WWJCD what would JImmy Carter do? The natural conclusion is that the more hostile a regime is to the US, the more authentic. The same reason that JC supported the Ceaucescus of Romania is the same as why Pbama will support Khamenei
It’s interesing that the American media just before the Iranian elections was full of pro and con commentators about Israel striking Iran, but none of them covered the elections in detail. Does the Assembly of Experts still keep ‘reformers’ from ballot access? Who is running as a war hawk, who is running as a pacifist? My sense is, the media has no idea and is not willing to risk finding out. Too many journalists dying, so the Iranian theocratic governance gets a pass.
watching this clown act out makes me realize how much politics is like hollywood. look at the ensemble of jokesters we have congregated on the world stage. you couldn’t come up with a more pitiful excuse for people to run the world if you tried. this iranian guy looks like something straight out of a 3 stooges clip. heck, we aren’t any better. that crop of democratic hags is right out of some zombie movie. i could envision pelosi & company chasing people down the streets “brains, give me brains!”.
btw, (off topic) go check out the videos released yesterday by arizona’s sheriff joe detailing how computer experts have pulled obammy’s birth certificate apart, what computer program was used to put it together, and how they forged his selective service records. interesting stuff.
I don’t yet see an uprising or ‘Persian spring’ in Iran. I think outsiders will force things. That may or may not result in such an effusive spring.
One thing nearly for certain – demolition or attrition of nuclear facilities, etc., will not cause most Iranians to rally around the regime. It is un-rally-able.
i don’t believe there are any certainties in this situation, but i certainly doubt the possibility of many iranians rallying round this regime even if there is a foreign attack. it would depend at least in part on what kind of attack, the designation of the targets, and the success of the operation.
I keep wondering – what’s the real difference between Karroubi, Mousavi, Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, Larijani – they ALL want the nukes and they ALL want to start the fire. Not ONE has renounced that option or plan – all religious yahhos bent of destruction. Screw them all.
i do not think Karroubi or Mousavi wants to start any more fires. u ought to read Mousavi’s various public statements during the 2009 campaign and thereafter on terrorism, foreign policy, etc. i don’t think it’s at all correct to lump M & K in with the regime that killed members of their families and has placed them in solitary confinement.
That’s more like, “Do you love me, or do you want to die?”
Of course part of the problem in understanding Iran is mistranslation.
Just the other day the Supreme Leader Khamenei gave a speech and the media reported that he said “I have no fear of saying that we will back and help any nation or group that wants to confront and fight against the Zionist regime”
Proper translation is: “We are scared sh*tless of fighting the Jews ourselves but if anyone else out there wants to we will write you a very nice check”
One rumor has been going around is that Khatami, the Ex president, also voted. BUT no news agency has shown any picture of him at any polling station. Fars news associated with the Guard posted a picture of him. That picture was old picture when he was attending a funeral less than a year ago. So no actual photo or independent news agencies confirmed this. And Radio Farda, funded by U.S., proudly posted this news on its web site!!!???
several eyewitness confirmations, actually.
Who is the process of voting supposed to influence? Does a large part of the population become quiet because there is a voting process? Does the voting process gain better treatment from non-totalitarian states? Does it merely provide forlorn hope that some day the populace can elect better rulers?
Really. What drives totalitarian rulers to have elections?
they pretend–to their captive subjects and to gullible outsiders–that it gives them greater legitimacy.
To Michael Ledeen,
Thanks.
“Totalitarian regimes love elections. Stalin loved them, Hitler organized boffo movies about them, Mussolini stood in the blazing sunshine of Piazza Venezia to rally the faithful, Fidel’s campaign speeches famously droned on for hours and hours. Saddam used to win upwards of 90%…that way, it doesn’t matter who “wins,” since the voting doesn’t matter anyway. Everything is top-down.”
Yes, this is the unspeakable percentage of elections in countries are ruled by any Totalitarian regime…for example, the thug “Bashar Al-Asad” won the last presidential votes in a percentage 97, 6 % although there was NO another presidential competitor….IN IRAN, Khamenei already HAS THE FINAL SAY in everything, except this is just a DECEPTION AND LIES…and here sometimes are strongly supported by the trickeries of Mullahs’s guys on this forum….
So who do we support in Iran? Can we support Mousavi or Karoubi given that they have been part of the regime for so long and they have no history of supporting democracy? They claim they support gender equality and nuclear transparency — I remember khatami ran on a platform of Iran first, Islam second but he didn’t or couldn’t deliver and a whole bunch of his government ended up in Jail. The MEK with their history of support for terrorism — should we trust them to get rid of Iran’s nuclear program and support democracy? I wouldn’t bit on it since they are much more competent and radical than the mullahs and are probably behind most of the bombings in Iran. The national front? they supported mossadegh in the 50′s even though they knew he was using the oil issue just to gain power and had no interest in democracy so we can cross them out. The dynasty before the pahlavi’s? They were one of the worst in Iran’s 2,500 year history. Of all the players only the pahlavis have a history of supporting some type of constitutional rights, gender equality and support of literacy and let’s forget the rest of the players and stop chasing our tail.
I am much more optimistic about the Greens than you are. I think Mousavi/Karroubi have earned respect and admiration, and it seems to me that they have attracted some very impressive younger followers, many of whom have been arrested and treated terribly. I’m not going to endorse a “candidate,” I think that most Iranians want an end to the regime, which I want too, and that’s the main thing. There will be time enough to sort out the various parties, groups and movements afterwards, and the Iranian people will do that. If we get to that point…
Hey, Russia just had an “election”. Sometimes these things can backfire, people can put up with tyranny until you rub their noses in it with sham elections.
Michael, Khameini seems to have won these elections over Ahmadinejad, weakening Ahmadinejad. Does that mean someone else counted the votes? Last time it was Ahmadinejad’s people, or rather a ministry comprised of his people was it not?
the supreme leader always determines the final outcome. don’t try to parse the internal conflicts, it’s a war of all against all.
Isn’t that what you’re doing with Mousavi? He will continue to get nukes and I can’t see him getting rid of the current system which means it will still rest in the hands of Khameini. Or has Mousavi called for the overthrow of the theocracy? They all shout death to the dictator, Ahmadinejad, but are they calling for khameini to step down? (Or die?)
I think the Greens want an end to the Islamic Republic, and not “reforms.” I think that can be proven by reading the various public declarations of Green leaders following the election hoax, and by the document (posted on PJ Media) sent to the Obama Administration at the end of November 2009. And what do you think they have in mind when they chant “death to the dictator” from the rooftoips?
On nukes, nobody has a definitive answer. Everybody sucks answers from the tip of their thumbs…
The younger crowd are more impressionable and more easily convinced than the older people. The younger crowd followed Khomeini and then turned on him when he got rid of his national front prime minister and the rest of his pro democracy government and the same young people are now kicking themselves for supporting him in the first place. As bad as this government may be, it could get much much worse and the region’s stability should be our main concern and not just changing the government. We no longer can afford to take the politician’s promises at face value and need to really look at their history since their history will determine how they will act once in power. I am not impressed by Mullah Karoubi’s achievements in the government in the last thirty years.
Just start the war and defeat Iranian mullah’s hellish regime, faster please.
It can be very late, soon, leaders of Israel or U.S or Europe!
Wake up of your sweet sleep, your sweet dreams can change to a horrible nuke nightmare like 9/11 or worse. Iranian mullah’s sworn to deliver their nukes to their proxies, it’s not their fault, they are doing the right components of hostility, they are busy to get ready for hundreds hidden self-detonated nukes in your cities, it’s your fault to always escape of confronting versus harmful enemy.
All of these heroic and glorious speeches by leaders in front of tribune by AIPAC are worthless and hollow, empty and useless!
Terrorism and evil and wickedness can’t be defeat and exterminate by magnificent lectures and speeches.
How much speeches can stop a sworn enemy who always did and done and are doing and busy in harming the peace and send the missiles to neighbors of Israel, can stop the devilish enemy in Iran?
How many glorious lectures could be useful for stop Iranians to not kill our soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan? How many innocent persons murdered, execute and assassinated by Iranian terrorism?
For thirty three years Iranian mullah’s regime are busy to kill our compatriots, our fellow Americans and Israelis. They act in the entire globe easily and kill everyone who they like and decide.
How many attendees is useful to stop Iranian enemy, but black market always sell the best devices and goods for Industrial advancements and centrifuges, not only enriching uranium but also making plutonium. Their thousands centrifuges do not aim to a little or some handful enriched radioactive medical isotope materials, they are producing for thousand pounds 90% or higher enriched ready for detonate and DEPLOYMENT. Why always western powers say lie to themselves About peace?, but they give the best facilities to Tehran’s regime!
Your sweet dreams for many years established a multi head venomous viper in Middle East and Tehran.
Mr. Obama! Tear Down and defeat this hellish regime, declare war against these demonic mullah’s creatures, blow up their navies in the Arabian Gulf, destroy their revolutionary guards, send their whole military forces to hell . Sanctions are an endless road that tested before and has no result, may be able to act for North Korea but Iranians so much smarter than yellowish race! Mullah’s have many panders and proxies in U.S and Europe and Middle East.
Mr. Netanyahu! Declare war against Iranian devilish regime. Let the army and fighter pilots send this regime to hell, let the army solve this 33 year problem.
Confront against this regime with the highest fire power. Iranian nation will accomplish the rest.
Start the most shocking war against the Tehran’s regime, all the world will support, King Abdullah’s Saudi Arabia will support, all the neighbors will support, and nation of Iran will cooperate and get involve cutting their throat. All the world tired of this evil regime.
all the military experts knows that their military forces like the Saddam army will collapse and ran away like a whipped dog in the first steps of invasion. If it required, conquer the Iran country, by ground advancement to topple down the regime. This damn regime is not qualified not only to have nuclear technology but also govern the Iran country, they are the seed of harm, evil, and devil, they are neither Liable nor responsible, they are expert in lie, deception and terror.
Victory is our highest priority.
Faster, with more speed, please.