Also read my article “SUNNI VERSUS SHIA: THE MIDDLE EAST’S NEW STRATEGIC CONFLICT”
By Barry Rubin
Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group which rules the Gaza Strip and has been moving toward a partnership with the Palestinian Authority’s ruling Fatah party, has openly proclaimed itself the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.
This development took place during the visit to Cairo of Hamas’s Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh. It should be remembered that Hamas not only calls for Israel’s destruction but for genocide against Jews generally. It was Haniyeh’s first trip abroad since Hamas seized the Gaza Strip in 2007.
In meeting Haniyeh at the Brotherhood’s new headquarters’ building, the Brotherhood’s leader Muhammad al-Badi, said that Hamas had been a role model for the Brotherhood. While this might be mere flattery it might be noted that Hamas first won an election, then went into a coalition with a “more moderate” partner (Fatah), and then staged a coup to seize complete power. That’s an interesting precedent for Badi to cite.
Haniyeh described Hamas as the Palestinian branch of the Brotherhood. Referring to their alliance Haniyeh said, “Our presence with the Brotherhood threatens the Israeli entity.” It certainly does since Hamas will enjoy the Brotherhood’s full support in its anti-Israel activities including the use of violence and, probably, in the event of any future war with Israel.
Since the Brotherhood will be the main party in parliament that also expresses Egyptian policy, however circumscribed it might be by the army and by a non-Brotherhood president. Of course, there might be a Brotherhood president, too.
The Egyptian Brotherhood now leads an umbrella organization that includes Hamas; the Syrian and Jordanian Brotherhoods in opposition; the ruling party in Tunisia; the potential ruling party in Libya; and branches that dominate many Muslim communities in Europe and North America.
That’s an impressive situation for a group that we have been told is weak. We are now seeing how we have also been wrongly told that it is moderate.
Two other points.
1. Jon Alterman, director of Middle East studies at the CSIS think tank in Washington has a New York Times op-ed which is the first sign of the foreign policy establishment waking up. He writes:
“American interests, however, call for a different outcome, one that finds a balance — however uneasy — between the military authorities and Egypt’s new politicians. We do not want any one side to vanquish or silence the other.:
In other words, forget about the liberals and bashing the army, the military has to balance the Islamists or else it will be a disaster.
2. The deputy leader of the Brotherhood, Rashad Bayoumi, said the Brotherhood will never recognize Israel: “This is not an option at all, whatever the circumstances, we do not recognize Israel at all. Israel is an occupying criminal enemy.” Have no doubt that his problem is that Israel is “occupying” the territory of Israel itself. Can one have peace with a “criminal enemy”?
Line of the day, Syrian oppositionist Ammar Abdulhamid on the Arab League monitors, who in some cases have turned out to be apologists for the repressive regime:
“Syrian protesters were doing a great job documenting their own suffering and dying, they really did not need help doing that. What they need is international protection, and the Arab League monitors are not providing it.”
Last time I checked, the Obama administration calls Hamas “terrorists,” while it calls the Muslim Brotherhood “moderate Islamists”. How do you suppose they will resolve the contradiction of terrorists being the Palestinian branch of moderate Islamists?
My prediction: watch Hamas become “moderate Islamists” too, if they aren’t shooting too many missiles right this minute. They moderate big brothers in Cairo will have talked sense into them.
But they won’t dare push the line too far because the stupid American voter won’t buy it.
the stupid american voters will
and of all the stupid american voters the stupid american jewish voters surely will
This has been known for years. Muslim Brotherhood regimes lead every Arab country in North Africa except for Algeria and there an Islamist takeover is a matter of time. The MB has a good chance of taking over Syria and Jordan.
That won’t happen in Iraq since the balance of power in the armed forces and in the ruling elite is with the Shia and the Kurds and there is no support among them for a Sunni Arab Islamist takeover.
The Islamist Winter’s true character won’t be apparent for some time but what can be said is its character won’t be a democratic and constitutional one.
Of course they are running to Egypt. Reports are that Hamas is running out of money. Iran has cut its payments to Hamas and Hezbolla. The Syrian base of operations will not last much longer.
News of the the massive devaluation of the Iranian currency today combined with the ridiculous threat from the Iranian Army Chief to the US Navy demonstrates just how out of control things are for them.
The irony is that were it not for the Egyptian Brotherhood Hamas could well be on the ropes after all this time and a glimmer of hope for a peace deal could be seen. Now it is over for good.
Since practically every Arab state is governed by the same sort of despots that run Syria, it would be a great surprise if the Arab League monitors actually condemned the Syrian government’s repressive actions.
If the MB is only as strong as the numbers of people who VOTE for them, how does that make them “strong?” If they have to operate within the constraints of parliament, how are they not moderate at least in that sense? The MB is not “running” Egypt or anything like it. When that happens let’s point to it but otherwise this Chicken Little I-saw-it-first syndrome will have a prospective learning audience saying the credibility of reports of such issues is down the drain.
There is this little thing called the army in Egypt and they have not conceded anything yet and unsourced reports of deals between them and the MB are so much science fiction passed off as reality.
Phillip, if the Muslim Brotherhood plus the Salafis hold 80% of the seats, just what do you suppose the “constraints of parliament” will amount to? We are not talking about the UK or the USA here.
The “constraints of parliament” will not amount to a hill of beans, unless the MB go so far that the Egyptian army objects. I think army objections (plus considerations of losing American aid money) will be just enough to prevent them actually going to war against Israel; but I fully expect to see them impose Salafi-style Sharia Law on Egypt and give open support – missiles, volunteers and propaganda – to Hamas, their brethren in Gaza.
I wonder why my comment doesn’t show up. I posted it yesterday. Well, nevermind.
pnina, you always have something to the point to say
Well, I just wanted to point out 3 things:
1. Hamas covenant (article 2 IIRC) already states they are a wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, which to me is proclaiming it openly enough, so what’s new about their current declaration? Obviously they want to join the winning horse, but it’s not like they and the MB just made it up this moment. They were always a wing of the MB.
2. In the interview with Rashad Bayoumi prof. Rubin quotes, Bayoumi some other alarming things (emphasis mine):
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=251732
“The deputy leader stressed during the interview that no Muslim Brotherhood members would ever meet with Israelis for negotiations.“I will not allow myself to sit down with criminals.”
“Bayoumi went on to say that the Muslim Brotherhood would take legal procedures towards canceling the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel that was signed in 1979.
” “The Brotherhood respects international conventions, but we will take legal action against the peace treaty with the Zionist entity,” he told the paper.”
Alright, the script will not post my comment with the third point, so that was probably the reason why it didn’t post my original comment. Maybe it’s because it has a link to al masry al youm, or maybe the word ‘c a l i p h a t e’ is now forbidden on this website? Who knows?
Anyway, Mohamed Badie, the Supreme Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood (also mentioned in Rubin’s article), said the MB is close to achieving the “ultimate goal”, which is a c@liphate (delete the spaces):
al masry al youm . com/en/node/574431
“The project begins with the creation of a sound government and ends with the establishment of a just Islamic c@liphate, said Mohamed Badie, the Supreme Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt on Thursday, in his weekly message on the group’s official website.
“When the group first began its mission, it aimed at guiding and awakening the nation so that it could regain its position after a long period of delay and recession, said Badie.
“He went on to describe the two key aims outlined by Banna [the MB's founder] at the group’s sixth conference. The first objective was to increase group membership numbers. The second was the establishment of a long-term plan for the reform of all aspects of people’s lives.
“Banna specified stages through which the ultimate purpose could be achieved, said Badie. The first step is the reform of the individual, then building, in order, sound family units, a society, and a governance system, and finally establishing a c@liphate system.”
obama paved the way for the bros’ rise to power
ex- prez bill clinton married weiner to huma, a sister of the bros
obie made fellow Alinsky devotee hilly clinton u.s. sec’y of state
huma is sec’y of state hilly clinton’s inseparable gal friday
weiner’s mom-in-law’s a big-shot sis to the big bros
abbas ‘n hamas are a team now
hamas joined up with the big bros
hilly sez the big bros are moderate
j street sez israel’s gotta talk to hamas
the big bros say they don’t recognize israel
and they don’t want no more peace treaty neither, no sir
bill clinton said arafat effed up the peace process but
he changed his mind after hitching huma and weiner up and
it was all israel’s fault he sez now
obie’s sick and tired of israel playing games
so’s his sec’y of defense
so bibi’s sitting at the table with abbas
even tho he sez if hamas teams up with abbas
he ain’t gonna do any such thing
etc. . . .
that the “bros” as you call them are calling the tune in the Obama administration?
and it doesn’t bode well for israel, obviously
there are 37 jews in the congress now
all but one, eric cantor, are democrats or independents (2)
you hardly hear a peep out of those 36 jews
lamed-vovniks they ain’t, but that’s too much to expect
still, not a peep out of them, pathetic
and most jews in america still fawn over obama
and hundreds or thousands of rabbis do also
go figure . . .
Mr. Rubin:
I also read your “Sunni vs. Shia” article. If confessional conflicts, kept under wraps by the secular Arab nationalists, are now coming to the fore, do you forsee the long-threatened-but-never-actually-arriving “Sunni vs. Shia Civil War” finally breaking out? And by “civil war” I mean exactly that, a real war: Sunni and Shia killing each other in large numbers in actual battles.
While it would be preferable, of course, for everyone, including Israel, to sit down and get along, insofar as I don’t forsee choruses of “Kumbayah” breaking out any time soon on the Muslim side, the best thing, for Israel at least, is for the Sunni and the Shia to go at it hammer and tongs and destroy each other root and branch. So long as they are fighting each other, they will have less resources to spend on fighting Israel. Every Sunni or Shia killed in fratricidal intra-Arab violence is one less Sunni or Shia available to fire rockets at Israel or strap on a suicide vest, and one less plane, tank, or bullet to use on the Jews.
Peace, real peace, is the preferred outcome, of course. But if there is not to be peace, better that the Arabs kill each other and leave Israel alone.
Please watch the following speech by Tarek Fatah (author of “The Jew is not my Enemy”)
http://www.ideacityonline.com/talks/tarek-fatah-on-the-threats-of-islamo-facism/
Seems completely chaotic doesn’t it?
Who involves themselves and benefits the most from chaos?: Al Qaeda.
The Sunni military intervention force moving into Syria (supported by Qatar and Saudi Arabia) is closely linked to Al Qaeda linked-operatives and pretty much entirely consists of Islamist terrorists.
Al Qaeda’s just claimed to have established an operational cell: “Sunni Youth Movement Cell in Greater Jerusalem.” Palestinian plans to launch a “popular resistance” campaign from the West Bank highly likely triggered that. Hamas and Jihad Islami will most likely use this campaign of commotion as a back drop for terrorist attacks.
This Al Qaeda cell in greater Jerusalem is tied to Palestinian Islamist Salafite organizations from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. They are linked or strongly influenced by Al Qaeda. Armed Fatah groups have been battling Fatah al-Islam, Ansar al Sunna and Jund al Sham, and the like, of this region unsuccessfully for some time now.
Meanwhile, in Gaza; Hamas has been letting al Qaeda networks in Sinai cultivate ranks of Salafist cells for over three months. However, now these al Qaeda-linked organizations are inciting their Sinai networks to terrorize Egyptian and Jordanian targets as well as Israeli. Some of the last missile attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip were staged by these Salafist groups.
You seem to take it on faith that the MB saying one thing to America in English is the lie and what they say to their target audience in Arabic is the truth. How do you know the MB doesn’t keep the Israel boondoggle alive to keep their identity on the street alive?
Egypt demonstrably cannot attack Israel with an American army and has no money to buy a new one. Plus the MB didn’t run on a platform of endemic hostility to Israel but on economics. It is the Salafis who put religion front and center.
Each one better figure out a way to translate their rhetoric into jobs or they’ll be out on the street. There is little wiggle room in Egypt for failure when it comes to millions of men and women trapped at their parent’s home at the age of 28 cuz they can’t afford to get married.
when the brothers say they’re with hamas in their war on israel it’s no lie, and you know it
Because from our experience when the Arabs say one thing in Arabic and the opposite in English they usually do what they said in Arabic. Perhaps with the exception of the Jordanian monarchs that will normally do what’s best for their own survival as monarchs, no matter what they say in either language. And anyway, what they say in Arabic at least merits a mention and consideration rather then ignoring it completely, which the Western media does most of the time. How do you know that it’s what they say in English and not in Arabic that counts?
When Yasser Arafat talked about peace in English and about jihad in Arabic he soon embarked on jihad and not peace. Hamas, though, lies less. In English they say the rockets they launch at Israel are pretty harmless (a lie), and that they are freedom fighters against Israeli occupation (a lie), and that they have no other choice (a lie). But they also said more than once even in English that they will never recognize Israel and never make peace with it. It’s just the Western/leftist journalists who are seeing signs of moderation on every turn. Also in Hebrew – once a Hamas personality was interviewed on Israeli TV and in the end the interviewer asked him if he can envision any time and circumatnces in the future under which a peace with Israel will be possible, and he replied quite honesly: “In your dreams!”. And that last utterance pretty much sums up the Oslo peace delusion and why people like me fell for it so easily.
An Egypt under the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood will not necessarily directly go to war against Israel with a regular army and conventional warfare, unless there’s a united military front of several Muslim states against Israel. What they are highly likely to do is allow the free flow of weapons and terrorists into the Gaza strip and possibly the Sinai (we already had a terrorist attack and several other attempts from there since the revolution in Egypt). They might not even lose American aid if they’ll claim they want to stop them, but just can’t control them, and possibly temporarily arrest a few every now and then for show (worked well enough for the PLO for years). Westerners underestimate the real effect of terrorist and/or rocket attacks when they are an everyday occurrence for prolonged periods. A commonsensible person only needs to imagine what it’s like to live like that for years, ranging from several of these a month to several dozens a day, to understand this isn’t a minor disturbance. Israel will have to respond. It will have to, for instance, prevent weapons from entering Gaza. Things are bad as they are with their Kassam, Grad and Fajr rockets – the latter can reach Tel Aviv, but they have them in short supply. If they’ll have unlimited access they in the south, together with Hizballah in the north, can cover all of Israel with rockets indefinitely. In such a case Israel will possibly have to strike on the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent the entry of weapons, or intercept ships carrying weapon that will pass through the Suez Canal, and I don’t even want to think what will happen if there will be attacks from Egyptian territories while the MB will claim they can’t stop them. In any such case the West will blame Israel, and Egypt will be able to use it as a pretext for whatever they think they’re capable of doing.
well folks get ready for a big show down in the middle east, it well be war against small tiny Israel, but Israel well win.
Hanyeh n’a jamais appelé à l’extermination des juifs, c’est un ignoble mensonge. l’”extermination sacrée”, “la division dans la famille”, “le glaive”, “le frelon”, “l’avilissement de l’être humain” c’est dans la Bible, parole de Yhwh
(cf. le deutéronome). Maintenant, mort à la colonisation ….OUIIIII ! la colonisation est illégale. En plus la PALESTINE est arabe ! non ? Et vous,la culture supérieure du Carnage (cf. V.D.Hanson) vous n’êtes pas arabe.