A pair of overnight airstrikes didn't just light up the skies over Russia and Ukraine on Sunday night; they illuminated the very different realities of a war now well into its fifth year.
It seems like only last week [It was only last week, Steve —Editor] I showed you how Ukraine's yearlong air campaign against Russia's energy industry was at long last showing noteworthy results. While the rest of the world enjoys lower gas and diesel prices thanks to the administration's nearly-a-ceasefire with Iran, Russians all over the Federation wait in long lines to pay high prices for gas that is often rationed.
And to think, the country isn't even Communist anymore.
Anyway, late Sunday night, Ukraine hit Russia's Omsk Refinery — the largest refinery in the country — at a record-setting 1,550 miles from the Russo-Ukraine border, and (slightly) further from the frontlines. Kyiv claims that more than half of Russia is now within striking distance, and after this attack, the Kremlin should believe them.
Take a moment to acknowledge what that means for a country as vast as Russia.
NASA FIRMS data shows that two of Omsk's primary crude oil distillation/processing units are ablaze hours after the strikes.
The fire at the Omsk Refinery is intensifying after the Ukrainian drone strike.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 6, 2026
The Omsk Refinery is Russia’s largest refinery by volume of oil processing. The plant is located approximately 2,500 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/wnUIfNvc5L
I was unable to find how many of those units Omsk has, but the two that are on fire reportedly account for roughly two-thirds of its output. If you squint, you can see the gas lines getting longer from here.
The real fun was this guy — a Kremlin propagandist called Golman — calling for Omsk to be surrounded by “four rings of air defense” because Kyiv would target it next. The video went out shortly before Kyiv targeted Omsk next.
If not, "half the government needs to be jailed."
Kremlin military propagandist Golman, shortly before the attack on the Omsk Refinery, posted a video calling for Omsk to be surrounded by “four rings of air defense” because it would be Ukraine’s next target.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 6, 2026
If this is not done, he said, "half the government needs to be… pic.twitter.com/LminluAd0s
How about three-quarters, Golman?
Apropos of something, the Russian bond market imploded again, signaling a total lack of confidence in the country's direction. The 10-year bond yield climbed back up over 16%, and anyone who remembers taking out a home loan at 15.25% during our country's malaise years understands the pain coming to the Kremlin's finances.
Still getting little coverage, the Russian bond market imploding. pic.twitter.com/5uzU8wdliG
— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) July 5, 2026
At roughly the same time that Kyiv whacked the heck out of the Omsk refinery, Moscow launched one of its biggest attacks on the capital city of Kyiv — waves of drones and ballistic missiles targeting nothing more important than an apartment building in the city's Podilskyi district. The building partially collapsed, with at least 15 people confirmed dead. At last report, rescue crews were still digging through the rubble. Citywide, Sunday night's attack wounded dozens more, all to no readily apparent military effect.
According to various reports, the attack consisted of 68 missiles and 351 drones across several regions of Ukraine, supposedly targeting Ukraine's military manufacturing, but apparently mostly hitting residential and civilian sites.
If Russia is targeting Ukraine's military sector, they do a lousy job of hitting it. Ukraine's homegrown military production appears to be at record highs.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, last night Russia launched 351 OWA drones and 68 missiles, including 6 Tsirkon / Oniks, 23 Iskander-M / S-400, 33 Kh-101, and 6 Kalibr. Kyiv was the focus of the strikes. https://t.co/p9NTmV9Karhttps://t.co/XAmC9hRvZT… pic.twitter.com/ytyyjJu8Yu
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 6, 2026
While Ukraine's air defenses did a better job shooting down incoming drones, Russian missiles were much more effective at getting through — because Ukraine simply doesn't have enough interceptors.
History suggests that terror bombing rarely achieves its political aims.
Targeting civilians is hardly a show of strength. Shortly after the D-Day landings, the Nazis targeted London with seemingly endless V1 flying bomb attacks, escalating late in the year to V2 ballistic missiles. An estimated 43,000 Londoners were killed, and another million were left homeless. The Germans lost the war anyway.
That said, it's often in the third or fourth year of a war — think kamikazes, V2 missiles — that one side grows desperate enough to try something new and terrible. The home front has grown weary, manpower losses stack up, and money problems start manifesting. I don't think Moscow's constant attacks on Kyiv earn the "desperation" distinction, which is exactly why I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, and for Putin to try something truly desperate.
There really are two air wars underway. Ukraine’s campaign targets the machinery that finances Russia’s war of aggression. Russia increasingly targets the same civilians Moscow wants to bring into its tender embrace.
Yet they resist.
