Iran "should have made a deal," conservative radio superstar Dana Loesch quipped on Thursday, reacting to President Donald Trump's threat that U.S. forces "will be taking Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure" in the near future.
Are we in the endgame now? At last?
UPDATE: Nope. Trump, according to the WSJ, now says he's canceled the strikes "after Tehran’s leadership and other parties negotiating a deal to end the conflict approved 'discussions and final points.'" Echoing what I wrote below, whatever went on behind the scenes, Trump's threat seems to have gotten what he wanted — even if what he wanted was for the talks to drag on while Iran's economy continues crumbling. But do read the rest of the column because it includes some fun tidbits. Original post follows.
Kharg Island sits near the northern end of the Persian Gulf — or as Trump might think of it, the Other Gulf of America — almost due east from Kuwait City. It's only a few miles long, but as you can see from this image I captured from Apple Maps, it's virtually covered in oil infrastructure.
Oil and LNG representing more than 90% of Iran's energy exports are processed at Kharg, stored in those massive tank farms, then offloaded to supertankers for sale around the world. Tehran could divert to other facilities, but at a comparative trickle.
It's a single point of failure. Saddam Hussein understood this, and attacked Kharg repeatedly during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988. But Iraq lacked the air power to do much harm, and he certainly lacked the naval power to seize it.
The U.S. military has no such limitations. In fact, a report earlier this week revealed that the Pentagon ordered elements of the 82nd Airborne Division to Israel in March for just such an eventuality.
"A military source involved in war planning tells me the deployment is tied to new U.S.-Israeli joint contingency plans, completed since February, for seizing Kharg Island and carving out coastal territory inside Iran," Ken Klippenstein wrote.
According to his report, the soldiers deployed to Israel are from the 2nd "Geronimo" Battalion, 501st Infantry Regiment. The 501st dropped behind Nazi lines in Normandy on D-Day, fought the Battle of Hamburger Hill in Vietnam, was one of the first units sent to Afghanistan after 9/11, spent a year in Iraq during some of the worst fighting there, and much more.
In short, the 501st is storied, and its men are badasses.
But I digress.
If Trump does order in the Marines, Airborne, or other forces, I suppose it will prove the first real test of American troops against enemy drones. Godspeed, fellas.
Trump's full statement — on Truth Social, of course — reads: "The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America."
He finished with the now S.O.P., "Thank you for your attention to this matter!" which I just love.
All that said, this could be more of Trump's bluster, purposely designed to keep Iran's Remnant Regime guessing, off-guard, and wondering if they'll ever get a deal before their money runs out.
Lowy Institute's R.N. Prasher this week was hardly the first to ask whether Trump's "protracted" negotiations are "part of U.S. strategy" to bring Iran "to an economically and logistically weak state where it has no option" but to give up its nuclear program and stranglehold on Hormuz.
Despite a moment of impatience I suffered last month — and honestly, hits me at least once a day — Trump likely has turned the Mullahs' "rug-merchant" negotiation tactics against them.
But that doesn't mean that Trump hasn't run out of patience, too, particularly after this week's downing of a U.S. Army helicopter over the Gulf.
Only the White House knows for sure, so stay tuned.
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