Israel Is Now the Regional Hegemon Iran Wanted to Be

It began, as so many unpredictable events did, on Oct 7, 2023, with the terror invasion of southern Israel.

An army regiment's worth of Hamas swept through Israel's largely unmanned Gaza defenses, on foot, in trucks, and even paragliders. They murdered in kibbutzes, at a music festival, and in the streets. The mass murder was as well organized as anything the Nazis achieved before establishing death camps at places like Auschwitz.

Hamas prepared for months, relying on in-person meetings between trusted members to evade Israeli electronic and human intelligence. It achieved complete surprise. Before IDF troops could mobilize and force Hezbollah back into the Gaza Strip — where the real fighting would soon begin — something like 1,200 Israelis were dead, mostly civilians. The dead included babies, children, and women sexually assaulted to death. Another 250 or so taken hostage, the remains of the last of them not returned until early 2026.

There was chatter in the early hours of that desperate Saturday morning of Hamas continuing the rampage northward to the West Bank, where they would join forces with the P.A., effectively cutting Israel in half. Hamas forces in Lebanon would sweep down from the north under an unending rocket barrage.

Had Hamas and Hezbollah gotten their way, the Oct. 7 invasion still couldn't have fulfilled the long-held dream of ending Israel and claiming "Palestine" from "the river to the sea." But it would have exposed Israel as weak and vulnerable, inviting further attack, weakening her will, and driving her people to emigrate back out of the Middle East.

Behind it all, providing the money, the weapons, and the vision: the Islamic Republic's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Middle East's new hegemon. And, with a near-witless Barack Obama crony ensconced in the White House, soon in possession of a formidable array of ballistic missiles tipped with nuclear warheads. Or at least that was the plan.

And Another Thing: What the Gulf oil states might have done in that scenario is a matter of speculation outside the scope of today's column. But they'd certainly have had zero reason for continued peacemaking efforts with a weakened Israel.

Before the invasion, Israel wasn't just seen as boxed in; she was boxed in. Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu's every decision is tempered by the threat of Hezbollah and Hamas missiles to his north and south. And perhaps even increased terror activity from the West Bank — a dagger aimed at Israel's heart.

Today, Ali Khamenei is dead. His dynastic replacement, Gayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is dead or might as well be. So many other Iranian political leaders, military commanders, intelligence figures — I could go on — are dead that it's almost impossible to keep track even with a scorecard.

Iran is boxed in by Israeli/CENTCOM air and naval forces, and a surprisingly resilient (albeit not very helpful) coalition of Arab Gulf states.

If the Middle East has a regional hegemon — aside from the out-of-region global hegemon, that is — it's the Jewish State. Israeli warplanes fly where they will. Israeli intelligence officers go where they will and turn whom they will. The Gulf states largely acquiesce, Hamas and Hezbollah are largely spent forces, and their sponsor state is on the ropes.

All because one man — now dead — thought he could change the Middle East on Oct. 7, 2023.

Well, I guess he did.

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