President-re-elect Donald Trump warned Russian strongman Vladimir Putin not to "escalate" in Ukraine during a phone call last week — and maybe an end to Putin's stupid war against Ukraine is finally in sight.
According to a report in Sunday's Washington Post, Trump and Putin spoke for about 20 minutes on Thursday, just two days after Trump's reelection. "During the call," the paper reported, Trump "advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe." That's according to the usual "person familiar with the call, who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter."
Translation: Trump wants it known that there's a new sheriff in town, but there's only so much he can do before he's sworn in.
The WaPo report continued: "Ukrainian officials have been informed of the Putin call and did not object to the conversation taking place, said two people familiar with the matter. Ukrainian officials have long understood that Trump would engage with Putin on a diplomatic solution to the war, the people said."
And Another Thing: That Time President Trump Put the Fear of God into Putin. "If Putin invaded Ukraine, Trump claimed he warned him: 'We’re gonna hit Moscow.' And 'he sort of believed me, like 5%, 10%,' Trump added. 'That’s all you need. He never did it during my time.'"
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's silence speaks volumes — it indicates that Trump will not sell out Ukraine pursuing peace at any price. Trump instead will likely act as an honest peace broker but one working from a position of strength. How Trump chooses to display that strength remains to be seen.
And One More Thing: Trump told NBC News last week that's spoken with about 70 world leaders since Tuesday, but WaPo reported that his calls "are not being conducted with the support of the State Department and U.S. government interpreters." Well, good — the Swamp can't leak what it doesn't know. If State had been wired into Trump's dealings, it'd try to derail his foreign policy before he's had a chance to implement it. These bureaucrats need constant reminders that our elected officials call the shots, not them.
I know that news will disappoint some of my more Putin-friendly readers, but if Trump is going to restore peace to Europe, it won't be through appeasement. Putin responds only to strength, and NATO under Trump's leadership has a lot more of it than under Presidentish Joe Biden.
It is unlikely that Trump will do anything to weaken Kyiv. The Ukrainian battlefield prowess is Trump's trump, his "or else" vs Putin; the biggest card Donald has. But does he have another card up his sleeve that will tilt the odds? Something constrained Joe could not play?
— wretchardthecat (@wretchardthecat) November 10, 2024
While it's impossible to say for certain what the precise details of a peace deal would be, two items are probably non-negotiable for each side: Russia keeps Crimea and Ukraine keeps its hard-fought national sovereignty.
This is a tricky situation that Trump has inherited. Russia is at best a second-rate power on the decline, but Putin has a reckless eagerness to toss the dice. China is (for now?) still a rising power but more cautious. If Trump offers too many concessions to Putin, Xi Jinping may read that as a green light over Taiwan. But compared to our interests in the Pacific, the Russo-Ukraine War is a secondary concern that needs to be concluded so that we can restore our focus on China.
Strength is the way to end this stupid war — and Trump displays plenty of it, even before his swearing-in.
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