The Polymarket betting odds quickly tilted so heavily in Donald Trump's favor — bettors prefer him 60/40 over Kamala Harris this morning — that Nancy Pelosi just put in another order with Long Knives. She ordered two sets, one for doing in Harris and the second for Tim Walz.
Enter stage left, Gavin Newsom.
I'm kidding, of course. It's much too late (I think) to pull yet another presidential candidate switcheroo. But you'd better believe it's a notion Pelosi entertained last night while finishing off her first bottle of chardonnay.
Harris, you see, is flailing.
Her latest pitch is to black men, who ought to be a lock this late in the campaign. Nevertheless, Harris is out there promising $20,000 small business loans to black men — forgivable loans, i.e., bribes. She's also apparently given up appealing to white moderates. On Monday, she entertained notions of multitrillion-dollar reparations. Reparations are something that "has to be studied," she told Charlamagne Tha God on his podcast.
Harris is on track to do worse with black voters than any Democrat presidential candidate since 1960, before LBJ locked them in "for 200 years."
This is one of the dumbest pander posts I've ever read. https://t.co/WxuO9PL1G5
— ₿ Michelle Ray ₿ (@GaltsGirl) October 15, 2024
That's the political version of what the entertainment industry calls flop sweat — the moment you realize you've lost the audience and you're alone up there on the stage, sweating profusely, saying and doing anything to win them back.
So Polymarket bettors now say the map looks like so:
Nancy Pelosi already stabbed one loser in the back, and Joe Biden was her dear friend going back decades. Harris, she might stab in the front, given the chance.
Nate Silver conceded yesterday that it's a 50/50 election, and given some of his recent flights of fancy (that's a column for another day), I'd guesstimate that actually means Trump is nearly outside the margin of cheating.
But only nearly.
For the record, I am not getting cocky. I still believe election night will come down to the wire and that the longer it goes on, the more chances Democrats will have to cheat in places like Philadelphia, Fulton County, Ga., and all the rest of the usual suspects.
Yes, Harris is flailing. But in a close election, flailing might work.
One last thing. I came across this X item yesterday and had to share it with you.
I’ve said since Biden withdrew that with a few months left I couldn’t imagine anything big that would break in Trump’s favor. I can’t think of anything that has.
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 15, 2024
Safe money is 2020+NC. But if it falls apart for Trump—& it’s starting to feel like it is—this could be the map. pic.twitter.com/xvatAgAGtc
Georgia and North Carolina going for Harris? Sure, well within the realm of possibility. Same goes for Nevada and perhaps Arizona. Texas, Ohio, and Alaska? That's some mighty fine meth you've got there. But the *chef's kiss* for "fairness" goes to making South Carolina the one state too close to call in this scenario.
It could be a real squeaker there in S.C, folks.
Snark aside, remember this: Ms. Houle's replies show that she's done her research. She believes the data show that Harris might win in a landslide like we haven't seen since 1988. Holue's map shows that if South Carolina tips blue, Harris would do as well as George H.W. Bush did when running for Ronald Reagan's third term.
These are the people who watch Rachel Maddow and believe it's real news. They're convinced that Donald Trump might actually order the Air Force to bomb "The View." They are, at least technically, our fellow Americans, and should Harris lose, they'll require heavy sedation.
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