All indications are that demi-President Kamala Harris will pick Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate and I'm not going to sugarcoat this one for you — that's a problem.
No, I'm not going back on my advice from earlier this week — "August Is Gut-Check Time, and You've Got to Hang Tough" — but Shapiro would likely put a serious crimp in Donald Trump's electoral strategy by effectively taking the Keystone State out of play.
Trump can't afford to stick his head in the sand, and neither can we. We have to address each new development soberly — I know, I know — and adjust plans accordingly.
Let's get to that assessment without further delay.
Pennsylvania voters love Shapiro. He polls at +18. Shapiro plays so strong in the Philly/Pittsburgh suburbs that the Philly machine might not even have to turn out the usual number of fake ballots. They still would, of course — old habits die hard.
And it does look like Harris has settled on Shapiro as her running mate.
Gov. Shapiro cancels weekend fundraisers in the Hamptons
— Allan Smith (@akarl_smith) August 1, 2024
Shapiro’s “trip was planned several weeks ago and included several fundraisers for his own campaign committee,” spox Manuel Bonder said. “His schedule has changed and he is no longer traveling to the Hamptons this weekend”
Not only has Shapiro canceled those big-money Hamptons fundraisers, but the Harris campaign says she'll announce her pick on Tuesday — at a Philadelphia rally with her new veep in tow.
There's a line of thought that choosing a Jewish running mate is a big no-no with the Democrat voters of Dearbornistan and would practically hand Michigan to Trump-Vance. But I'm not convinced.
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Harris brings the strongest and most obvious anti-Israeli/pro-Iran-Hamas-Hezbollah element to a major party ticket ever. She's virtually a Boycott-Divest-Sanction (BDS) candidate. Or as I like to think of it, JDS or Jewish Derangement Syndrome. America's Muslim communities would see Shapiro for what he would be on the ticket: a sop to moderate voters, mere window-dressing for Harris's increasingly open hostility to Israel.
With a Harris-Shapiro ticket, Trump-Vance is probably back where they started, with Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia all safely blue once more.
Today's map looks like this:
Harris must win Wisconsin and Michigan, two states where Democrats usually don't have much trouble. Trump must pick off either one of the two — and that means winning back enough moderates to tip the scales in blue-leaning states.
It has never been more important to hammer away at Harris on policy, especially on her job as border czar. Shapiro gives her cover as a moderate and we have got to strip that away.
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