Left-leaning political model master Nate Silver has some very bad news for Presidentish Joe Biden with his second election projection, just out Monday evening.
PJ Media's own Matt Margolis brought you Silver's first damning report on Biden's chances last week. "Based on his simulations, he currently gives Trump a 65.7% of winning the Electoral College," Matt reported two days before Thursday night's debate debacle, "and a 49% chance of winning the popular vote."
Since then, Biden's odds have improved dramatically, and also I've been drinking this tasty White House Kool-Aid.
The latest Silver Bulletin (subscription required; I paid so you don't have to) shows Biden with just a 27.6% chance of winning the Electoral College and 44.2% odds of taking the popular vote. Trump is up heavily in less than a week since the first — or will that be only? — presidential debate.
7/1 model update.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 1, 2024
Debate beginning to take a real bite out of Biden. pic.twitter.com/lSESmUd4JZ
Silver says that his most recent projection is "probably conservative," and that things for Biden "will get worse."
It's fundamentally a terrible idea to ask the public to make the guy they saw on Thursday president until he's 86. One of the craziest "asks" in the history of American politics. And Trump likely wins close calls in the Electoral College.
How bad is Silver's report, really? It's somehow even worse for Biden than it appears on the surface.
Set your Wayback Machine to November of 2016 when Trump picked off Rust Belt states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win the White House against Hillary Clinton. Clinton, I don't have to remind you, was not just the least likable major party presidential candidate in modern times, she was also the most inept — and had health issues of her own.
Nevertheless, Trump lost the popular vote by nearly three million votes. If Silver's simulations are close to the mark, outside of maybe California, Biden's popular support has taken a body blow. I wouldn't say that it's in freefall — or at least not yet — but that has become a genuine possibility.
Recommended: Embrace the Deep State, Comrades!
Silver is a center-lefty who says he would never vote for Trump, yet suggested that the Democrats "Maybe nominate Kamala, Biden's hand-chosen VP, so you can at least be truthful with the American public? That's the adult and responsible thing to do. Instead, these selfish staffers will take down the party brand with them."
That was in response to Biden's campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, who tried to calm worried big-money donors on Monday that "He’s probably in better health than most of us," according to two people who were on the call. "They can't tell the truth, that their candidate is well below the threshold of someone who should be president for another 4 years," Silver replied, "so they tell obvious lies that nobody but the dumbest partisans will buy."
Silver concluded his X thread by arguing that for Biden, "Any more 'senior moments' probably unsurvivable." He warned Democrats hoping that Biden will somehow turn things around that it is "Fundamentally untenable to nominate this guy for 4 more years so things will tend to break badly."
As though to put a capper on Silver's Monday projection, the White House trotted a spray-tanned Biden out last night, possibly hoping to change the debate narrative. "A four-minute speech read off a teleprompter isn’t going to quiet the worries about Biden," Chris Cillizza quipped — marking maybe the first time he and I have ever agreed.
Polls can be wrong. Projections falter. But the narrative is nearly cast in stone.
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