Welcome to this special Democrats' Hair Is on Fire edition of my semiregular Wargaming the Electoral College series.
We're seeing some genuine signs of panic in the Biden White House particularly and among vulnerable Democrats generally — and there are more vulnerable Dems than most anyone expected there to be.
The White House just announced its plan to release a million gallons of refined gasoline (not crude oil) from the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve (not the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) to keep gas prices down during the summer road trip season. Buying votes in the Northeast? Really?
And PJ Media's own Rick Moran reported earlier Wednesday that Democrat senators are running for reelection hard and fast away from anything Biden-related because "he's getting close to being the kiss of death for any incumbent."
The mood of the country isn't quite there, at least not yet, but if our national mood turns any more sour, a real wave could develop.
There's one other thing I can't figure out how to factor — with one exception that I'll get to momentarily — is how Democrats will cheat in 2024. I don't just mean mystery boxes of ballots conveniently showing up at odd hours with every D checked. I'm talking about the full-court press from the White House, the traditional media, social media, rogue federal agencies, AI deepfakes... all of it.
But there are a couple of assumptions I can safely make, and one of them is that Biden won't win any states in 2024 that he couldn't take in 2020. A steal of that magnitude would lead to things that I don't think — or at least I hope — not even the Dems would risk.
So here's Donald Trump's starting point for 2024.
Winning the exact same states (and Maine's rogue elector) gets him 3 more EC votes than he got last time around because of changes in apportionment since the last Census.
Then there are the states no Democrat could lose in 2024, not even Joe Biden.
235 to 235 with 68 up for grabs in the Upper Midwest, the Southwest, and the South. That's a real horserace.
Pennsylvania is the exception to my rule about leaving out various cheats. While polls show that Trump is competitive in Pennsylvania, my friend Stephen Kruiser and I aren't convinced. We talked about this on Monday's "Five O'Clock Somewhere." We don't doubt the polls, but we do doubt Trump's ability to win enough votes elsewhere to beat Philly's magic ballot-generating machine. I'm waiting to read more on-the-ground reporting from the indispensable Salena Zito before I'll change my mind on this one.
But if Trump were to win big enough to beat the Philly machine, he'd win so big across the nation that Pennsylvania would just be more icing on the cake.
Nevada and Arizona look to be out of reach for Biden at the moment, so let's color them red, too. Same goes for Minnesota and Trump, so I'll paint it blue.
If the rest of today's maps are correct, the first candidate to take either Michigan or Wisconsin takes it all.
Finally, a couple of blowout scenarios.
If Trump were to win big enough to take Penn., I suspect the rest of the map would look like this.
And I'd be remiss if I didn't show you what the Big Steal would look like — and I don't have to tell you what the Biden Cabal would do with a second term.
Stay tuned. I'll do the next edition of Wargaming — just for my VIP readers — as more polls are released and more news develops.
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P.S. Thank you once again for being a treasured VIP supporter. I'd like to buy each of you a drink but then we'd end up doing shots and dancing on the furniture and I'm just getting too old for all that. So I hope this simple thank you will suffice.
