Polls show that 40% of voters in battleground states are either "not too satisfied" or "not at all satisfied" with the choice of Joe Biden or Donald Trump for president. But for Senate Democrats in competitive states, running with an incumbent president whose approval numbers are underwater is a crapshoot.
“If you go out there and do a focus group, the focus groups all say, ‘He’s 200 years old. You got to be kidding me.’ And the worst part about it is for unaffiliated voters or people that haven’t made up their mind, they look at this and say: ‘You have to be kidding us. These are our choices?’ And they indict us for not taking it seriously,” said a Democratic senator who requested anonymity.
The senator said that his Democratic colleagues “know this is a problem” but also realize it’s too late to do anything about it and that “this is the ticket we have to get behind and we have to win with this ticket.”
“We’ll see how much gravity we can defy,” the lawmaker said. He was referring to senators in tough races who are out-polling Biden.
While senators running away from an incumbent from their own party is not unheard of, these Democratic senators are in a particular bind. Biden is so unpopular, and many of his policies are so toxic even to voters of his own party, that the president is more than a drag on a senator's reelection chances. He's getting close to being the kiss of death for any incumbent.
For their part, Republicans are tying vulnerable Democrats and Joe Biden together and binding them with a Gordian knot so that whenever voters think of an incumbent Democratic senator, they can't help but see the grinning visage of the 81-year-old Biden looking back at them.
“President Biden’s favorabilities are the lowest of any president in 70 years. It’s a big problem for the Democrats. They know it,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is counting on his vulnerable colleagues running ahead of Biden by running on his accomplishments while dodging his personal negatives.
“If you look at the same polls, No. 1, all of the four battleground states they tested, every one of our Democrats was ahead, and that’s because our Democrats are great candidates. Every week they are implementing the great work we did in 2022, 2021, 2023,” he said when asked about Biden trailing Trump in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, all of which are Senate battlegrounds.
Many of the most vulnerable senators are breaking with Biden on some key issues like border security, liquified natural gas exports, the Israel-Hamas war, and tariffs on Chinese goods.
“Biden’s showing his age in ways weirdly more than Trump,” said another senator wanting to remain anonymous.
Biden's age is a problem that Democrats can't hide or finesse. But it's high prices that will send Joe Biden packing.
“People are shocked at the cost of a house and the cost of drugs,” said the senator. He noted that "a can of midgrade paint now costs $55 a gallon," reported The Hill.
Two states to watch for both the presidential race and the reelection contests for incumbent Democratic senators are Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Nevada is shaping up to be a bloodbath for Democrats with Biden trailing Trump in the state and first-term Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in a statistical tie with Republican candidate Sam Brown.
Rosen broke with Biden in sending bombs to Israel, calling for "unconditional" security assistance for Israel.
Asked about Biden’s 33 percent approval rating and other poor poll numbers in Nevada, Rosen emphasized her independence and record of working with Republicans.
“For the third year in a row, I’m in the top 10 most bipartisan senators out of all 100. I’m the top three most independent Democratic senators out of now 51, and in the top 10 most effective Democrats. So people in my state know me. They know what we’ve been doing for Nevada. We’re going to continue to let them know,” she said.
In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey is locked into a close race with Republican David McCormick. He has split with Biden on LNG exports as well as the embargoed arms transfer to Israel.
Casey’s work to distance himself from Biden on key issues appears to be paying off. Polls show him currently leading hedge fund CEO and Republican candidate David McCormick 46 percent to 41 percent.
A majority of voters in Pennsylvania — 54 percent — said they trust Trump to do a better job of handling the economy, while 42 percent trust Biden more.
Biden's approval rating has fallen to the lowest level in more than two years. He's not going to be able to right the ship before election day.
His forlorn hope is that America will experience an "aha!" moment and come to realize how great the economy is and how very, very, bad Donald Trump is for America.
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