Jumping the shark usually only requires three things: a fast boat, a minimum of one shark, and of course, Fonzie on waterskis. But there are so many more moving parts in presidential politics that shark-jumping requires fancier equipment, higher stakes, and personalities even bigger than the Fonz.
Not as cool as the Fonz, mind you, because clearly, that's impossible.
That brings us to one Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his independent presidential campaign which is so compelling that it has Washington's "elites" in fear of his "growing path to victory." But it is simultaneously so desperate that he's considering a stunt-casting role more ridiculous than that shark's appearance on "Happy Days."
Not as ridiculous as Mork from Ork, mind you, because clearly, that's impossible.
Douglas MacKinnon — who served as a writer in both the Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush White Houses — warned in The Hill on Friday that "while many 'experts' still dismiss the possibility of an independent or third-party candidate winning the election, there seems to be a bit more hand-wringing and whistling past the graveyard" by both Democrats and Republicans.
By MacKinnon's admission, it's an unlikely path to the White House for Kennedy. First, RFK Jr. would have to increase his polling support from today's 19% to 34% — that would be almost double — between now and November, edging out both Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the popular vote. That's a huge leap, but even then, MacKinnon estimates that kind of support would only be enough to prevent any of the three candidates from reaching 270 in the Electoral College. Kennedy's second big leap would be convincing 26 state caucuses in the House to "do the right thing" and support the plurality popular vote winner.
Forgive me for missing this next item a week ago when it happened, but I can only read so many news stories each day. Besides, news searches for "Robert F. Kennedy Jr." are not at the top of my To Do list.
Kennedy has one more leap to make, one more shark to jump.
Even with metric craptons of money, which even Kennedy might not be able to raise, it isn't easy for a third-party or independent candidate to get on the ballots of all 50 states plus D.C. Without that ballot access, Kennedy's chances of getting 34% of the vote quickly decline from "not very likely" to "ain't gonna happen." So far, Kennedy has only qualified for the ballot in Utah. One down, 50 to go.
That's why Kennedy said last week — and, again, please forgive me for missing this howler when it broke — that he is “looking at” running on the Libertarian ticket.
This is when Fonzie starts putting on his swim trunks and waterskis.
The Libertarian Party has, in the past, earned access to all 51 ballots... and Kennedy needs access so... match made in heaven, right?
“At [the nominating] convention, there’s going to be too many red flags, and he doesn’t excite anybody who’s not just an anti-vaxxer,” a former chairman of the Libertarian National Committee, Nicholas Sarwark, told Caroline McCaughey at the New York Sun last week.
New Hampshire LP delegate Jeremy Kauffman said that Kennedy is "delusional" if he thinks he can win the Libertarian nod. "He’s bad on foreign policy. He’s bad on the Federal Reserve. He’s bad on minimum wage. He’s bad on the environment." Kennedy is about as good a fit with the Libertarian Party as your Friendly Neighborhood VodkaPundit is as the keynote speaker at a Temperance Union convention.
It's a neat trick Kennedy performed, jumping the shark while frightening the elites. But based on everything I've read so far, this story is just the elites trying to frighten donors out of more of their money.
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