"It's a pity both sides can't lose," Henry Kissinger (in)famously quipped in 1988 about the Iran-Iraq War but he might be saying the same thing from the afterlife about the fight now brewing between Iran and Pakistan.
Early Thursday, the Pakistani Air Force hit "militant hideouts" in Iran with multiple airstrikes, reportedly killing nine. A statement from Islamabad's foreign ministry described the attack as "a series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes." That's Pakistani-speak for "we lobbed bombs in the general direction of the enemy." Really, Thursday's airstrikes were in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks on similar "militant hideouts" in Pakistan on Tuesday — but stick a pin in that detail because I'll get back to it in a moment.
The local advocacy group HalVash "shared videos showing a mud-walled building destroyed and smoke rising over the strike immediately after," according to the AP, which in that neighborhood could have been anything from just a mud-walled building to a mud-walled building sheltering terrorists.
In between the tit-for-tat strikes, Islamabad recalled its ambassador from Tehran and sent Iran's ambassador in Islamabad packing. Tehran claims that Thursday's airstrike killed one of their Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders. Since the IRGC is Iran's military/terrorist hybrid organization, to that news I say, "Cool."
The Saudis are reportedly attempting to negotiate between the two sides and there's a report that a Chinese attempt at mediation has already failed. An as-yet-unconfirmed report claims that the border between the two almost-warring countries has been closed. I wouldn't be surprised if fear of Islamabad's nuclear arsenal is the only thing holding Tehran in check but that could change just as soon as Tehran develops deliverable nukes of their own.
India, however, is backing Iran's play because of long-running historical tensions (not to mention a war or three) with neighboring Pakistan. If you'll allow me to pull another one out of the Historical Quotes for Almost Any Occasion Hat, it's like that time Winston Churchill said of Britain's alliance with Joseph Stalin during World War II, "If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons."
AI Monitor senior editor Joyce Karam called it a "dangerous situation for [a] multitude of reasons, primarily [because] Pakistan is nuclear power & Iran struck deep in its territory on Tue."
The big question is why Iran and Pakistan are shooting up one another's "militant hideouts."
Take notes, because there will be a short quiz at the end of this column.
Like the stateless Kurds inhabiting neighboring parts of Iran, Iraq, and Turkey, the stateless Baluchi people are spread out from southwestern Afghanistan to a big chunk of the border area between Iran and Pakistan. Many Baluchis would like to live in Baluchistan but there isn't one, so various "militant" groups are on a mission to make one.
The anti-Iran Baluchi militants have their hideouts in Pakistan and the anti-Pakistan militants have their hideouts in Iran so sometimes to defend their respective regimes from various militants, Iran has to strike at Pakistan and Pakistan has to strike at Iran because this is a part of the world where pretty much everything is screwed up pretty much all of the time.
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