Prepare for a long Ukraine War, as Russian strongman Vladimir Putin announced the mobilization of 300,000 more men — and darkly reminded Western nations that he has “lots of weapons to reply” to what he called NATO’s “nuclear blackmail.”
“It’s not a bluff,” he warned before announcing his country’s plan to annex Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine — and even parts Russia has never occupied or no longer occupies.
Putin gave the address on Russian state television Wednesday morning after an overnight delay.
There is both more and less to Putin’s mobilization plans than meets the eye.
One stumbling block, according to military experts, is that Russia basically doesn’t have a reserve — certainly nothing like our Army Reserve or National Guard.
A 2019 RAND study noted that “Russia has paid little attention to developing an effective and sizable active reserve system that might be immediately required in the event of a major war.” RAND estimates that Russia has an effective reserve of only 4,000-5,000 men.
The country’s former army reserve units had been disbanded from 2008-2010 as part of the military’s modernization program, with their equipment — all of it older — going into storage or scrapped.
That doesn’t mean that Russia can’t conscript, train, organize, and arm 300,000 new soldiers, but it won’t be quick or easy.
One problem, as Foreign Affairs analyst Oliver Alexander put it, is “effectively readying and equipping these reservists. Russia already has problems equipping its professional armed forces.”
Then there’s the speed problem. Dara Massicot wrote back in August — weeks before Kyiv’s stunning counteroffensive in Kharkiv — that “Even if the Kremlin pulls all levers available, declaring a general mobilization to call up sufficient armored equipment and trained personnel, that process would still take time.”
That’s because with something like 80% of Russia’s combat power already fighting in Ukraine, plus wartime losses to their NCO and officer corps, the Russian army will need to train more trainers before anything like 300,000 men can be mobilized.
Just last month, Putin ordered an increase in the size of the Russian military of 137,000 troops. But as I reported to you then, Putin’s order only meant that “Starting next year, the Russian military will be authorized to find another 137,000 troops.” The country has long had a problem with draft dodgers, one that Putin’s “special military operation” won’t help.
In total, Putin wants to increase the size of his military by nearly 50% — something easier said than done.
Equipping all those troops will be a problem, due to sanctions and losses, except for older equipment of dubious military effectiveness.
On a side note, Putin’s order is already meeting some passive resistance: CNBC reports that “One-way flights out of Russia were rocketing in price and selling out fast on Wednesday after President Vladimir Putin ordered the immediate call-up of 300,000 reservists.” How bad is it, really? Well, Moscow just ordered airlines to stop selling tickets to Russian men aged 18 to 65. I guess that means Putin is considering drafting men up to 65 years of age.
If this keeps up, Russia will have to replace its national anthem with The Marvelette’s “Destination Anywhere.”
I kid, I kid.
It’s one thing to announce the mobilization of 300,000 reservists, especially when they don’t even exist even on paper. It’s another time-consuming effort to turn them into a true fighting force.
Or if Putin doesn’t feel he has the time to spare, he can keep rushing poorly-trained, poorly-led, and poorly-equipped men straight to the front in hastily-assembled units.
That’s what he did with the newly established 3rd Army Corps last month — the one that dissolved in mere days of combat in Kharkiv.
Militarily, neither choice provides Moscow with any new options any time soon.
That means that for at least the short-to-medium term, Putin’s announcement was more about the politics of the Ukraine War than it is about increasing the military.
This might be the method to Putin’s madness.
If Kherson and Donbas magically become part of Mother Russia via some ginned-up, phony referendum, then he can claim that using nukes would be in defense. That’s a serious upping of the stakes and might well test the resolve of Western powers to keep Ukraine in the fight.
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