I’m certainly not going to express an opinion about how Biden should balance his personal and family issues and his political ambitions, but, as I’ve stated before, it’s never been quite apparent what the logic of a Biden campaign for the White House would actually be. Hillary Clinton can just as easily claim the mantle of being a successor to President Obama, and she has a far deeper constituency inside the Democratic Party. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, has seemingly locked up the support of the parties progressive wing for the time being. It’s hard to see where Biden fits in that kind of race, unless he’s there simply as the “In case of emergency” candidate in the event that Clinton’s ongoing problems become a far more serious threat to her electability than they are now. Even in that situation, though, Biden would need to get into the race by sometime in November at the latest in order to get on the ballot in the early primary states. Given the fact that there are no signs that he’s done any of the preliminary organizing one sees from someone seriously considering a run for the White House, it seems clear that he’s leaning against running, either for the reasons he has stated or for other reasons entirely.
If Hillary really does stumble as badly as I think she will (or at least as I think at this moment!), it seems more likely that the Dems will go Full Corbyn with Bernie Sanders than to nominate a late-running and half-willing Joe Biden.
And each passing day makes it that more difficult for Biden to put together a real organization, even just in Iowa and New Hampshire. News came out today that Biden recently met with a “top Obama bundler” in New York, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where waiting until Thanksgiving to announce isn’t too late.
Then again, presidential politics… only fools make solid predictions and then stand by them for weeks (or maybe even only days) in a row.