— Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) May 13, 2015
In spite of rising earnings and income estimates, “median household spending growth expectations retreated significantly from the last month” in the Fed’s words.
In general, I do not place much faith in these estimates, especially inflation expectations. That said, the spending estimates do ring true with weak economic data that we have seen for six months.
Should these spending projections prove to be correct, a US recession that few if any economists see coming, has already started.
Q1 GDP growth was barely positive, at a meager 0.2% annual rate. Last year ended with a whimper, with nearly all consumer spending growth due to ♡bamaCare!!! mandates and craptaculent ACA-compliant insurance plans. So we’ve already had two or three quarters of stall — and it isn’t difficult to see that tipping into “negative growth.”
Or as we used to call it, “recession.”