Springtime for Putin

Russia-backed rebels take positions on the outskirts of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, Thursday, April 2, 2015. OSCE monitors accompanied by pro-Russian rebels visited the ruins of Donetsk Airport and nearby areas to monitor the situation on the ground and discuss the observance of February’s cease-fire. (AP Photo/Mstyslav Chernov)

Here we go again:

Russian-backed separatists are planning a fresh offensive in eastern Ukraine that could come within a matter of months, warns retired General Wesley Clark, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander.

“What is happening now is preparations for a renewed offensive from the east,” and this could take place following Orthodox Easter, on April 12, and “most probably” before VE Day on May 8, Clark said on March 30, citing multiple local sources he spoke with on a recent fact-finding mission to Ukraine.

“That’s what all the talking is about right now, preparing the cover for the next attack,” he said.

I saw reports over the winter that the sheer length of the Ukraine War was putting a serious strain on the Russian Army. Maneuvers around the Russo-Ukrainian border are expensive, and not just on Moscow’s depleted pocketbook — they’re hard on men and equipment, too. The actual fighting of course is much, much harder.

But it seems that what Noah Rothman calls “that de facto ceasefire” was long enough for the Russians to make good their losses and begin preparations for a renewed offensive.

This off-again/on-again fighting will continue until Ukraine finds the men, the material, and the will to establish an optempo which Russia can’t sustain.

Or until Putin has taken as much of Ukraine as he wants.