Not by much, but it isn’t a trend you want to see continuing into the November home stretch:
The latest Practical Politicking Report (PPR) places the odds of a Republican senate in the next Congress at 74%, down 4% from a month ago. The probability of an eight-seat pickup now stands at 57%, down 5% from August.
Several rating changes and the addition of Kansas to the “states in play” list were responsible for the small decrease. Overall the likelihood of the GOP controlling both chambers in the 114th Congress continues to be favorable.
The upheaval in Kansas, with Democrat Chad Taylor dropping out of the race, had an obvious impact on the current PPR, but it may also be a short-lived anomaly that passes quickly. From a mathematical viewpoint the race is rated Leans Republican now but from a fundamental perspective it is more likely that Pat Roberts reasserts his strength soon.
Kentucky moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican, and we are confident that Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell, will win reelection.
Louisiana moved from a Toss-Up to Leans Republican, though the Pelican State remains a difficult one to handicap. The new rating considers the likelihood of a runoff election in December (anticipating that none of the three principle candidates garner 50% of the vote on November 4) and the outcome of the runoff, in a head-to-head battle between incumbent Mary Landrieu and challenger Bill Cassidy.
Landrieu shouldn’t stand a chance, but there’s a war on women, yo.
Tom Dougherty has (nearly) written off Monica Wehby in Oregon, which is a real shame because she’s exactly the kind of candidate the GOP needs more of in the future, especially as the Democrats continue to hone their techno-divide-and-conquor methods.
But don’t forget that what follows “divide and conquer” is “unite and rule.”