Bruce Walker thinks Dick Durbin might be in deep doo-doo in Deep Blue Illinois:
The Chicago Sun Times, according to a poll released on September 1, shows that Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, the second-highest-ranking Democrat in the Senate, may be in serious trouble in Illinois, a solidly blue state. The poll shows that Durbin is only seven points ahead of Republican Jim Oberweis. More troubling for Durbin, this establishment Democrat boss in a Democrat state polls only 47% of the vote, well below the 50% margin usually considered healthy for incumbents. Even worse for Durbin, the Libertarian candidate, Sharon Hansen, polls over 4% of the vote so that Durbin, if Oberweis woos those voters to his right, polls only two points behind Durbin.
Durbin’s problems are aggravated by a deep and wide malaise among Illinois Democrats. Governor Quinn is losing his battle for re-election, and the polls show increasingly that this race will likely become a Republican landslide. Quinn’s administration is generally considered a flop.
How bad is the Quinn administration? He’s hardly even expected to go to jail, which is almost unheard of for an Illinois governor.
My gut says Durbin wins. But what’s strange for this Totally We Swear Not a Wave Election the pundits keep telling us about, is that almost all of the tightening is in the “right” direction.