Frail Britannia?

The Scots might actually vote to break up the United Kingdom:

With less than three weeks to go to a referendum that could end the 307-year-old political union at the heart of the UK, a YouGov survey for the Sun newspaper put the pro-union lead at just 6 percentage points, excluding undecided voters, down from 22 points less than a month ago and 14 points in mid-August.

The poll offers a huge morale boost to campaigners for a Yes vote in this month’s independence referendum, particularly since YouGov has consistently reported relatively low levels of support for independence compared with other pollsters.

“If even YouGov have it this close, then you better believe we’re winning this folks,” tweeted one independence supporter.


Six point is still a lot of ground to make up, and the practical and political problems of independence are just too great for me to believe the Scots would go for it. This looks to me like little more than some late-breaking enthusiasm for an initiative nobody believes will really pass, so it’s easy for Scottish voters to tell a pollster Yes.

On the other hand, I’ve seen some crazy election results.


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