VodkaPundit

PPR: GOP Now 75% Likely to Win Senate

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This must be the weekend to spend some time scanning the various pollsters and reports and put together the next Wargaming column, but in the meantime here’s Tom Dougherty:

We recently made two rating changes; Iowa is now a Toss-Up (previously Leans D), and Virginia moved to Leans Democrat (previously Likely D).

Several particular factors have influenced the latest ratings on an overall basis, and there is much new information in most of the individual races.

While often considered more of a house race metric; the Generic Congressional Vote continues to hover near even, down from a Democratic advantage late last year of 5% to 7%, demonstrative of the general attitude of voters toward each party.

President Obama’s approval rating is trending downward again, and approaching his worst numbers (minus 16%) in the last year. Real Clear Politics reports his current average rating at minus 12.7%, but that includes an apparent outlier from Rasmussen Reports. Most distressing for Democrats, outliers or not, is that the trendlines are negative and at the least opportune time.

The middle of the summer is when the incumbent party needs those polls to start showing an upswing, and recent headlines from Ukraine, Gaza, and our own southern border aren’t going to be of any help to the White House or to Harry Reid.