Handicapping a GOP Senate

Chris Stirewalt saw the latest WSJ/NBC poll and concludes the political climate is actually worse for Democrats this year than it was in 2010. Here’s why:


— The president hit a new low for job approval in the poll of 41 percent, 7 points below where it was at this point in 2010. Respondents’ esteem for President Obama’s handling of the economy and of foreign policy are both markedly worse than four years ago.

— Among registered voters, Republicans held a 1 point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 4 points better than at this point in 2010.

— The overall approval of ObamaCare among all adults – 49 percent saying the law was a bad idea and 36 percent saying it was a good idea – is identical to four years ago when it passed in March 2010.

But as a practical matter, what does it all mean? I’m not sure it means much at all.

Let’s say the numbers hold, or even get better for the GOP going into November. ♡bamaCare!!! never smoothes out, the economy stays in its never ending holding pattern, and all the rest. Democrats stay home on election day, GOP voters show up. And as a result, the Republicans win a solid majority in the Senate (53 seats or better) and even pick up a few in the House.

(The Democrats are very near their natural floor in the House already; there simply aren’t very many pickups available for Republicans.)


We might end up with some real budgeting, which would be nice. But I don’t expect that until and unless there’s a fiscal semi-conservative in the White House. As an institution, Congress is ill-suited to budget-cutting. The Senate would become an interesting place for a change, with exciting hearings and investigations into the Wiggleroom Administration. As a blogger I’m craving all that.

But this President has a powerful executive branch at his disposal, and he means to use it. He has a veto pen, too. Yes, there will be more trouble from Capitol Hill, but also more opportunities for the MSM to run interference against all the scary old white men who would be running a GOP Senate. (The current old white men are not scary, because they’re Democrats. Ipso facto.)

So other than the increased volume, I don’t expect much to change. You?


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