Santorum Has Lost — And I Can Prove It

Here’s the delegate math, according to the good folks at Real Clear Politics:

2,286 delegates
652 – Romney
269 – Santorum
140 – Gingrich
67 – Paul

1,144 needed to win
1,158 left to go
1,128 awarded so far

Romney needs 492 more, or 42% of the remainder. He has, so far, won 57% of the awarded delegates. So he’s over performing by about 14%.

Santorum needs 875, or 75%, of the outstanding delegates to secure the nomination. He has won, so far, 23% of the awarded delegates.

This is the point where Santorum supporters counter with, “But all Rick has to do is, together with Gingrich and Paul, win enough delegates to block Romney. It’s three against one!” Then — somehow — Santorum will win in a floor fight in Tampa. And just never-you-mind that floor fights produce compromise candidates like Romney, not more extreme candidates like Santorum.

But let’s be fair to my delusional friends, and run the numbers for Not-Romney.

To do block Romney from winning another 492 delegates, the Three Amigos would need to win a combined total of 667 delegates between now and July 14. Here at the halfway mark, they have won a combined total of 476. To put it another way, S/G/P would have to start improving their current performances by almost 50%

But Gingrich has all-but suspended his campaign. There are no more caucuses where Paul’s devoted followers can help him out-perform his small (and dwindling) popular support. So, really, it’s all on Santorum. He would need to start winning delegates more than three times faster than he’s been winning them.

Santorum’s winning streak in the midwest came to a crashing halt in Illinois, and yesterday Wisconsin voters rejected him, too. The rest of April will probably be worse for him — and that’s according to Ed Morrissey, who supports Santorum.

So where will the votes — where will the delegates — come from to block Romney?

It’s over for Rick. The numbers don’t lie. It’s time for him to get on the team.