Santorum: Collapsing the Keystone
Rick Santorum is having trouble in… his home state of Pennsylvania? Looks that way:
With the state primary four weeks away, Santorum now finds himself nearly tied with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among the state’s Republicans, and support is eroding rapidly, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll out today.
“The real Rick Santorum has emerged,” said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
“Santorum ran a disciplined campaign for eight months, but a month ago he began veering off message into all these cultural and social issues,” Madonna said, referring to flare-ups over women in combat and contraceptives. “That may help with his core voters, but they’re already with him. This is supposed to be about expanding your base.”
The poll of 505 registered Republican voters, conducted March 20-25 in conjunction with the Tribune-Review and other media outlets, shows Santorum clinging to a small lead over Romney, 30 percent to 28 percent, within the poll’s 4.2 percent margin of error. [Emphasis added]
I hate to say “I told you so,” but I did — at least three times.
I owe a tip of the hat to Santorum supporter Ed Morrissey, who adds:
On the surface, it makes it look as though voters won’t have much reason to choose between the two front-runners. Santorum still gets higher favorables (54/26) than Romney (46/25), but that may change when Romney starts focusing on Pennsylvania after next Tuesday. The other states holding primaries on the 24th are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware — all states that Romney should win easily. Romney can afford to try a knockout blow in the Keystone State in the three weeks open to him.
If Santorum can’t carry Pennsylvania, the race will be over. Team Santorum had better hope this is an outlier.
One poll doesn’t make a trend. But PA comes at the end of a “tough month” for Santorum, which could make for a cascade effect of collapsing support.
Home state voters know you best. Santorum’s track record at home was lackluster at best, so he was never the GOP’s best option.
Perry had similar problems with his base at home. Once the voters see that you’re just another unprincipled pol, it’s hard to get them to commit.
Sitting senators don’t lose by 18 points unless the voters really, really, really don’t like you.
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I think Rick Santorum would be a decent president (and I do believe him to be a principled conservative), but he has a knack of alienating potential allies. Which is not going to work in a close election.
One poll in 20 is outside the MoE. Don’t hold your breath on this one until we get confirmation.
I’m admittedly a total dunderhead when it comes to understanding polls, but I tried to make sense if the F&M numbers & did worse than usual…
adding up the 4 candidate’s scores on the poll, I got 30 + 28 + 6 + 9 = 73, which leaves a 27% who are… what, undecided? independent? blase?
The previous poll from them added up thusly: 45 + 16 + 9 + 7 = 77. again, about 23% undecided/”I dunno” responses. I wondered if this was the norm, so I looked at other polls conducted in the state, like PPP and Quinny and all their numbers added up to high 80′s to 90′s.
Since I know nothing about poll methodology, maybe you guys could help me out here. What makes the difference? Are the other polls more forceful in getting people to choose a candidate when they’re not really decided, or what?
Rick had a shot and he blew it. Vetting works. With Tea Party reinforcements in the House and a GOP majority Senate, Romney might “evolve” in the White House. If Timid Mitt wants to win he’ll pick Allen West for VP. I suspect Mitt has his own Steve Schimdts and Nicole Wallaces. West will need to lay down somes rules before he commits.
Santorum made a critical mistake. He opened his mouth and spewed his true feelings. As an independent who tends to vote conservative, I appreciate his candor. I now realize what a loose canon he is and his potential for kookiness and disruption.
The GOP probably should accept it’s fate and unify behind Romney. It’s really their only chance at this point.