Nationalizing the Race (FL-19 Edition)

Can the GOP score an upset win in one of Florida’s most heavily-Democratic districts? Edward Lynch has the report at Big Government. But if you don’t read the whole thing, take this bite-size sample:


But several major factors can negate Democrats’ structural advantages in this race. The first is the fact that special elections almost always have substantially lower turnout— approximately 15% of your typical Presidential election, making success in this race heavily dependent upon whose side is most engaged and enthusiastic. Second, more than any demographic, seniors are opposed to Obamacare by nearly a 2-1 margin by virtue of the fact that their access to our health care system is directly jeopardized by the proposed $500 billion cuts to Medicare over the next 10 years. But the most important factor is obvious- with the outcome of President Obama’s government takeover of the health care system potentially at stake, and with the increased significance of every House vote, our race should now attract increased attention from concerned citizen activists across the country.

Man the battlestations.

Although as I quipped to Lileks yesterday when we were recording Five Questions For James Lileks for this week’s PJM Political: The good news is, the Democrats are about to lose power; the bad news is, the Republicans are about to win it.


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