Reading Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports (the only poll I’ve trusted the previous two elections) breaks down the Electoral College like so:

(Click on the table for a embiggened view.)

Here’s what interesting about Rasmussen’s results. McCain has only two states, worth 47 EC votes, in the “leans” column. Those are places where he needs to play defense, assuming that “likely GOP” states (135 ECV) are relatively safe from attack. Obama has six states, with a total of 66 ECV he needs to defend. And only 50 “likely Dem” votes to count on.

The Democrats have many more “safe” votes — 143 to 65. But they have more vulnerabilities, too.

UPDATE: Election Projection (sorry, no permalink, good while supplies last) sees Obama vulnerable in Michigan, despite his promise to bail out Detroit to the tune of 50 (or more) billion dollars:

I’ve been waiting to see if McCain’s bounce would seep into the blue states. A couple of polls in today’s crop indicate that may be happening. Two polls now show McCain ahead of Obama in Michigan. These surveys move that state squarely into the very competitive category. While Michigan still retains its blue shade this morning, the numbers do give Obama cause to worry. On the other hand, Colorado continues to be a rough proposition for McCain. Obama maintains a small lead there in two others polls out recently.

Interesting that McCain is doing better in Michigan than in Colorado. But as I’ve said before, Colorado is weird. We like our Democrats to be mavericks, or even a little loopy, and our Republicans to be straight-laced conservatives. Go figure.