Don't Get Cocky

Last week I stirred up some fuss over at Pajamas Media for daring to speculate a bit about the Bradley Effect, and what it might mean for the Obama Campaign. Now an unnamed Obama strategist is quoted saying that he’s “seen memos where they’ve been told to factor in four to six points for the Bradley effect, but they’re in denial about it.”

Take every state where Obama leads by four points or less and give it to McCain, and you end up with a map that looks like this sometime late on November 4, 2008:

Ouch. And if McCain keeps surging, then Iowa and Minnesota could turn red, too.