Clinton could still win the nomination, but it’s a long shot. She needs five things:
• Five-plus point wins today in Texas and Ohio.
• A winning credentials fight over Michigan and/or Florida.
• A few hundred Superdelegates suffering from Baramorse.
• Divine intervention by the Flying Spaghetti Monster.
I’m kidding about that last item. I think.
If Clinton doesn’t get big momentum with a couple big wins today, then I don’t think she can win Pennsylvania. If she doesn’t get lots of delegates out of Pennsylvania, then she’ll have a tough case to make that Michigan and Florida somehow represent the real “will of the people.” And without the “will of the people,” then I don’t see how Clinton can convince enough Superdelegates to come over to her side.*
And some magic from the Flying Spaghetti Monster wouldn’t hurt.
There is one other possibility. Call it Clinton’s One Step Program for victory. And that is, a general collapse in the Obama campaign. It’s the longest of long shots, but the Canadian Kerfuffle has to have Democrats worried that Obama has a glass jaw.
Can Hillary do it? Well, a year ago, the conventional wisdom was that Rudy and Hillary would be the nominees. Then it looked like Thompson would win. Or maybe Romney. Then Obama had a lock. Now Clinton is looking stronger in Ohio and maybe even Texas.
We’ll know more — maybe lots more — in about twelve hours.
*Although overriding the will of the people, when the people get it “wrong,” is exactly what the Superdelegates were created to do. Deep in his heart, every Superdelegate knows his real mission is best described as “No More Mike Dukakases!”