The polls could change drastically after Iowa, but look at what they’re saying right now in New Hampshire:
So, while we’ve been focused on Iowa, over in New Hampshire the last six polls have McCain and Romney tied, tied, McCain by 6, McCain by 6, McCain by 9, McCain by 4. (Some of those are daily tracking polls.)
None of those polls have him any lower than 29 percent. Beyond Romney, nobody else is consistently in double digits.
Romney had better come out of Iowa with momentum, because otherwise he’s in trouble.
Nobody else with reliable double digits? If McCain does well in Iowa (defined by a solid third or fourth place finish), then New Hampshire could turn this into a two-man race. It’s difficult to see Thompson or Huckabee (or even Paul, for that matter), sticking around after getting 6-9% in NH. Rudy has to stay long enough for Florida, but getting a win there looks tough-to-impossible if voters get it in their heads that the race is down to Two Guys Not Named Rudy.