VodkaPundit

Early Handicapping

Good reporting from David Broder on this year’s midterm elections. Choice bit:

The campaigns in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin will tell us more about the direction of the country and the shape of the 2008 presidential battleground than any of the battles for Capitol Hill — where incumbency advantages in both money and gerrymandering are likely to skew the results.

Governors are closer to their constituents than most senators or representatives, and they exert more influence on presidential politics than their federal counterparts, in part because the nominees themselves most often come from the statehouses.

Republicans are likely to consolidate their current strength among governors across the South from Florida through Texas. Democrats are poised to solidify their grip on the state capitols in the Northeast, with strong candidates available to challenge in New York and Massachusetts, where Republican incumbents are retiring.

What Broder leaves out is that Republicans lead in growing states, while the Democrats are stuck mostly with shrinking ones.