National Review’s Jim Geraghty says ABC’s latest poll could be “great news.”
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With eight weeks to go, Kerry has to get Bush’s support below 50% to even have a shot at this. If, after the debates, Kerry is still struggling to get himself over 47% and Bush under 50, then we could see something really interesting: A surge for Nader.
A Kerry flame-out would let those who regretted their 2000 Nader support forget their promises to “never again” vote for a third-party candidate — and vote their consciences again in 2004. That would put Oregon, New Hampshire, and Minnesota in play for Bush. Not that he’d need them in this scenario.