CNN has Kerry ahead 53-46, and Quinnipiac University has it pegged at 51-42.
Neither poll is worth baseball cap full of killer bees.
Whenever it looks like the new guy has the nomination wrapped up, he shoots up in the polls. At this time in 1984, Mondale looked strong against Reagan. Dukakis polled better than Bush in the spring (hell, even the summer) of ’88. That’s just the way it works.
I’m not saying that Bush isn’t vulnerable. Far from it — I’ve spent the last couple of weeks, at least, explaining just how vulnerable I think he is. But don’t put much stock in early polls pitting an incumbent who everyone is bored with against the (comparatively) fresh-faced newcomer. Even when the newcomer has a face as worn as Kerry’s.
Kerry’s face is worn, right? I mean, how else did it get so smooth?