Iran (So Far Away)
I’m dipping in the Debka well twice today, because this second one is too silly to pass up.
Debka claims that a recent note from Iranian “moderate” President Mohammed Khatami to Dick Cheney might signal an important split in the government there. Let’s take a look at the story, and what was in the note.
The note attempts to persuade the United States and Israel that carrying out plans to destroy Iran’s nuclear reactor at Bushehr would be undeserved and counter-productive.
There’s less — and more here — than meets the eye. The note itself is remarkable for being the first communication from the theothugcratic government since President Bush lined Iran up in the Axis of Evil. The note is quite unremarkable for what it actually says. Iran wouldn’t like it if we or the Israelis blew up their nuclear reactor? No shit?
So then what message is the note trying to convey? Wait, there’s more.
Khatami disclaims at length any involvement by the Iranian government and armed forces in the smuggling of al-Qaida fighters out of Afghanistan to the Middle East. He places full responsibility for this operation squarely in the court of his colleague, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who, he says, ran it with the help of his private intelligence agents, militia and loyal Revolutionary Guard elements.
Khatami then goes on to provide details of a supposed split amongst the higher-ups in the Iranian government. Interesting, but is there anything we can do with that info?
If true, then yes. But it’s probably not true — just disinformation to get us to dawdle instead of act. And even if it were, we should ignore it.
Let’s say Khatami is honest here. Why would he give us such juicy info? Obviously, he’d be looking for assistance in getting rid of the clerics and installing himself as the supreme power in Iran. And that would be a terrible idea. When the revolution comes in Iran, and it will, the best we can do is stand aside and quietly, very quietly, I’m-hunting-wabbits quietly provide aid to the democratic factions.
But Iran’s revolution must come from the street, otherwise we’ll just be setting up Khatami as another Shah Pavlevi. You remember him? He was the focus of anti-Western hatred in Iran, the guy whose fall led to the current evil government. And neither Iran, nor the Middle East, nor the US can afford that again.
The good news is, the fact that this note has been leaked tells us Bush is going to ignore it.
NOTE: Sorry for the Flock of Seagulls reference in the headline. It was cheap and easy — and all I could come up with.