It's a Bird! It's a Plane! It's Super Tuesday III!

Tyler O'Neil | 2:50 PM on March 15, 2016

Refresh for live updates throughout the night.

4:45 A.M.

The AP has still not called Missouri, the number of precincts reporting is down to 99 percent.

Final Thoughts:

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Trump won big tonight. He knocked Rubio out of the race, but the anti-Trump vote is still split between Cruz and Kasich. The majority of Rubio’s voters will likely go to Cruz, which begs the question of whether Cruz would have won Missouri, North Carolina, and Illinois had Rubio dropped out of the race last week, instead of after voting on Tuesday.

As of now, Trump boasts 621 delegates, which is slightly over half of the 1,237 he needs to win the nomination before the July convention in Cleveland, Ohio. Cruz stands at 392 delegates, with Rubio (now out of the race) with 168, and Kasich with 138. It is nearly impossible for Kasich to win enough delegates outright to secure the nomination before the convention — he would need to win all but 35 of the remaining delegates (over 94 percent).

Even Cruz’s shot at winning the nomination outright now seems far-fetched. He would need to win 74 percent of the remaining delegates to amass the right amount. Trump, by contrast, only needs 54 percent of the remaining delegates — still over half, but much more manageable. Notably, however, Trump has only won 46.4 percent of delegates allocated so far. If Rubio were to endorse Cruz and encourage all his delegates to vote for Cruz, the Texas Senator would still stand 61 delegates behind Trump, but his chances would increase substantially.

This “second Super Tuesday” does not clinch the Republican nomination, but it does significantly decrease the chances of any candidate besides Trump winning without a contested convention. It’s either Trump, or July madness in Cleveland. The game goes on!

 

2:03 A.M.

And Hugh Hewitt thinks Scott Walker is…I don’t know…God.

And this is fascinating on so many levels.

1:12 A.M.

Allegedly 100 percent of Missouri is in, but the Associated Press is not calling the race for Trump.

Trump — 40.8 percent (381,720 votes). Cruz — 40.7 percent (380,084 votes). Kasich — 10.1 percent. Rubio — 6.1 percent.

Kasich’s Political Action Committee took $200K from George Soros

12:55 A.M. Cruz supporters are glorying too much in Rubio’s loss.

Decision Desk calls Missouri for Trump.

12:40 A.M. Missouri still not called, with 98 percent of results in. Crazy.

Trump’s media support, quantified.

12:21 A.M. Classy bragging, Mr. Trump.

Former Obama campaign chief says Dems shouldn’t celebrate Trump’s victories.

12:05 A.M. Trump may have won in many states, but he’s only never hit a true majority, over 50 percent.

And he’s only won 37 percent of votes.

11:50 P.M. Some Trump supporters honestly believe The Donald will treat people “fairly” as president.

And Cruz has attacked the “liberal media” for supporting Trump, for good reason.

11:32 P.M. Rubio’s supporters took his staffers’ advice. Marco won only 2 percent.

And Rubio’s never been so loved now that he’s out of the race.

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11:26 P.M. Rubio should have dropped out earlier.

In some ways, Trump was more of an “establishment” candidate than we realize.

11:23 P.M. Mike Huckabee says “advantage Donald Trump.” Will he embrace The Donald?

Also, math shows without Kasich and Rubio, Cruz would have won many places, especially Missouri.

According to the estimates we developed last week, Cruz would be leading Trump in Missouri by about 4 percentage points in a two-way race. Cruz would also be leading by about 2 percentage points in North Carolina and trailing Trump by about 2 percentage points in Illinois.

11:20 P.M. Interest in “Religious Liberty” is up this election cycle.

That’s because: 1 — Obergefell and the legalization of Gay Marriage. 2 — Memories Pizza and the social media demonization of businesses that won’t cater to gay weddings. 3 — $135,000 court order fine to Aaron and Melissa Klein for refusing to bake a cake for a gay wedding, when there were multiple other bakeries willing to do so nearby. 11:14 P.M. When Marco Rubio drops out of the race, he finally beats Donald Trump — in internet search traffic.

Does it really matter, delegate-wise, that Trump lost Ohio? FiveThirtyEight’s Dave Wasserman says no.

Guess what? Trump could make up for all 66 delegates he lost in Ohio with huge delegate margins in Illinois and Missouri. In Missouri, Trump is clinging to a lead of just 2,400 votes, but IF things continue as they are, Trump will capture 47 of Missouri’s delegates to just five for Cruz. And in Illinois, where Trump is winning about 40 percent of the vote, he could win all but a handful of congressional districts, giving him perhaps 60 of the state’s 69 delegates. Wow.

11:04 P.M. Update from Missouri, 75 percent reporting: Trump — 41.6 percent (316,238 votes). Cruz — 41.2 percent (313,923 votes). Kasich — 9.1 percent. Rubio — 5.7 percent. Online search interest in 1,237 is on the rise. That’s the number of delegates a Republican candidate needs to win the nomination.

10:58 P.M. Cruz may have lost most of the states tonight, but his words are strong.

Of all the states to be going down to the wire, why does it have to be Missouri? From FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver:

As a native Midwesterner, I’m a fan of the Show-Me State, but Missouri is a fairly annoying state to be coming down to the wire. It’s quite slow to count its vote. Furthermore, there can be huge differences in the vote among St. Louis, Kansas City, the suburbs, and the rural parts of the state, making it hard to make extrapolations. Partly as a result of this, the Associated Pressprematurely called Missouri for Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary; it eventually went for Obama after further votes from St. Louis were tallied after midnight.

10:50 P.M. Ted Cruz is working for Marco Rubio’s endorsement.

Ted Cruz: “Do you want a candidate who shares your values, or a candidate who has spent decades attacking them.” He attacks the networks for giving “hundreds of millions” to Trump in “free advertising.” This is oddly true.

10:45 P.M. Kasich may be stronger on abortion than many conservatives think.

Poor Caesar. Poor Rubio.

10:41 P.M. Trump says we never win anymore. This is what he means.

Congratulations! You have survived the Ides of March. Unless your name is Marco Rubio.

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10:35 P.M. Missouri is a nail-biter.

This is the map of Rubio’s success (blue) and Trump’s domination (red).

10:28 P.M. Missouri is a close race.

A great note from a native Ohioan:

10:25 P.M. Did the violence and protests at Trump’s rallies help him? It seems so.

10:10 P.M. Trump touts Pam Bondi endorsement. He gave her campaign a donation, then she reversed her stance on investigating Trump University.

Is this Donald Trump’s best case scenario? FiveThirtyEight’s Dave Wasserman:

Are the stars aligning for Trump? It’s increasingly possible that Ohio could be Trump’s only loss of the evening. If that happens, you might not have been able to script the day more perfectly for Trump. Not only would he sweep huge delegate hauls from Florida, Illinois, and Missouri, but Kasich’s Ohio win keeps the anti-Trump vote split in the next few contests.

 

Moreover, Kasich’s Ohio win might prevent #NeverTrump activists from embarking on a campaign to get an independent on the ballot. If Trump were to cross the 1,237 threshold on the final day of primaries (June 7), it would be too late for such an effort.

10:00 P.M. Trump scores a “big win” in North Carolina. This makes Trump the winner in all of the South, except Texas. That’s like Clinton on the Democratic side, but she won Texas.

Trump has won more than eight states, the number you need to become the nominee. Trump is giving his speech now. “The Northern…Marianas Islands have been so amazing.”

9:50 P.M. Illinois has been called for Trump, although only 30 percent of the vote is in.

North Carolina, Missouri still not called. Missouri, 16 percent reporting: Trump — 42.7 percent. Cruz — 40.3 percent. Kasich — 7.9 percent. Rubio — 6.0 percent. 9:45 P.M. Donald Trump won the Northern Mariana Islands this morning, for 9 delegates. Numbers now — Trump — 570 delegates. Cruz — 317 delegates. Kasich — 129 delegates. Big question: Where do Rubio’s 163 delegates go? Did Bush destroy the last hope of the “establishment”?

9:36 P.M. People like Kasich, just not for president.

Did Rubio cost Cruz multiple states?

 9:29 P.M. Kasich’s 3rd and 4th most repeated phrases have to do with Ohio.

Republican voters feel “betrayed.”

9:20 P.M. Hillary Clinton on why both she and Trump should not be president.

23 percent reporting in Illinois: Trump — 40.9 percent. Kasich — 23.6 percent. Cruz — 23.4 percent. Rubio — 10.0 percent. 9:16 P.M. Cool North Carolina graphic from FiveThirtyEight.

Good news for Trump in Illinois — here’s a look at the math.

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All right, this is going to get nerdy, but it’s absolutely critical. There are very few GOP voters in Cook County, Illinois (Chicago), but the best news of the night for Trump so far might be that he’s winning it handily. That’s because there are three delegates at stake in each of Illinois’s 18 districts, regardless of how blue or red they are. In fact, Trump could win three delegates from a Chicago district with as few as 5,000 votes but then collect zero delegates from a Cruz-won downstate district with as many as 50,000 votes.

 

In early returns, Trump is taking 44 percent in Cook County to 23 percent for Kasich and 21 percent for Cruz. If that holds, he could win a bigger delegate margin out of the city of Chicago than he would win with a 15 percent margin of victory in the entire state of North Carolina. It’s a fascinating quirk of the Republican National Committee’s delegate allocation rules, and it wasn’t simply an accident or sign of provocation that Trump planned a Chicago rally last week.

9:12 P.M. North Carolina results — 26 percent reporting: Trump — 39.9 percent. Cruz — 36.0 percent. Rubio — 12.6 percent. Kasich — 8.8 percent. Hillary’s speech can be considered infuriating.

9:06 P.M. Woah, what a concept. Hoarse Hillary says it’s not just a Tuesday, but a “Super Tuesday.”

And now we’re starting to see a 2-man race?

9:03 P.M. Trump wins Florida, attacks Megyn Kelly. #CrazyMegyn is trending on Twitter.

Here’s Kasich’s path forward, from FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver:

Kasich needs a contested convention to win, so what does he do next? One answer is to stay out of Cruz’s way. That might mean focusing on northeastern states such as New York, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, where Cruz has little chance to win but Kasich has strong favorability ratings.

 

Wisconsin, which votes April 5, could be a trickier call because the state’s delegates are awarded winner-take-all (some by congressional district and some based on the statewide vote). It’s easy enough to imagine both Kasich and Cruz finding pockets of support in Wisconsin, but Trump winning the state with 40 percent of the vote while Kasich and Cruz have 30 percent each.

9:00 P.M. Times, they are a-changing.

Here’s Rubio’s obituary, from FiveThrityEight. Second of the most successful Latino candidates to ever run for the presidency, and he had the most endorsements in the primary for a while:

8:57 P.M. Here’s the real win of the night. People will be talking about Rocky De La Fuente for generations.

Oh, and Ohio is called for Clinton.

Hillary Clinton gestures during a commercial break at a CNN town hall at the University of South Carolina School of Law, in Columbia, S.C., on Feb. 23, 2016. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Hillary Clinton gestures during a commercial break at a CNN town hall at the University of South Carolina School of Law, in Columbia, S.C., on Feb. 23, 2016. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

8:54 P.M. Oh, Ben Carson.

And Rubio’s withdrawal helps Cruz and Kasich more than Trump.

8:50 P.M. Behind Rubio’s support in Florida. People who wanted an inclusive candidate did vote for him.

And the deluge of despair after Trump’s Florida win has officially begun:

8:48 P.M. John Kasich wins his first state — Ohio. 66 delegates more than doubles his delegate count.

(AP Photo/Sean Rayford)

(AP Photo/Sean Rayford)

8:38 P.M. Florida pushes Trump ahead in delegates, 568 to Cruz’s 370. Rubio had 163, and Kasich has 63. Cruz is coming up in North Carolina.

Will Kasich start racking up endorsements, or will Republican leaders roll the dice with Ted Cruz?

8:32 P.M. Rubio quotes King David, “Yours is the dominion, Oh God… May God strengthen the conservative movement.” Such a strong speech.

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Here’s a great question.

CNN projects Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina. Trump is ahead, with a quarter of the vote in. 8:25 P.M. The tragedy of this year. “It is not God’s plan that I will be president in 2017.”

Don’t look to see Kasich pull out tonight.

8:21 P.M. Rubio giving a strong concession speech. Republicans “have confused capitalism for crony capitalism, free enterprise with big business.”

No momentum from Michigan for Sanders.

8:17 P.M. Marco Rubio is dropping out of the race. You heard it first here. Marco Rubio’s withdrawal speech: “We live in a Republic,” until Trump wins.

“The politics of resentment against other people will not just leave us as a fractured party, they will leave us a fractured nation.” 8:11 P.M. S.E. Cupp with some important words tonight.

And it has now been revealed that the D.C. Metro is shutting down tomorrow — in mourning for Marco Rubio. Some are insisting that Rubio’s political career is over.

8:08 P.M. Paid family leave? LEAVE.

And no, the AP did not call North Carolina for Trump.

8:05 P.M. People are really forgetting the spirit of the Ides of March. Come on folks, stab together. As one!

Florida is over. Rubio said, “I believe that the winner of the Florida primary will be the winner of the Republican party.”

8:02 P.M. KASICH-MENTUM! Oh wait, he cannot win, even if he won every single delegate remaining.

  CNN is calling the Florida race for Trump. It’s over for Rubio.

7:58 P.M. #TrumpUniversityMascot is trending on Twitter.

Trump says “if media wasn’t so biased against him,” he would have won all delegates in the race. How stupid does he want people to think he is?

7:53 P.M. Rubio may lose Florida, but his campaign pushing for Kasich in Ohio might make the difference there.

And, um, Esquire is calling North Carolina for Trump. No one else is — they’re just lost, and don’t understand “9 percent reporting.” Trump is at 40.9 percent. Cruz at 33 percent.

7:48 P.M. In contradiction of all possible evidence, Trump supporters still have high expectations of The Donald.

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And this WILL make the difference in Ohio.

7:44 P.M. Shout out to you #NeverTrumps and Rubio fans out there.

While we’re on the topic of Rubio…

7:41 P.M. Tonight, we are seeing the real Gil-mentum.

Florida results, 18 percent reporting: Trump — 46.0 percent. Rubio — 27.2 percent. Cruz — 15.5 percent. Kasich — 6.8 percent.

7:38 P.M. This is a real quote. From Jerry Springer. Reported by the Associated Press, not the Onion.

North Carolina — about 1 percent reporting: Trump — 40.2 percent. Cruz — 32.0 percent. Kasich — 14.4 percent. Rubio — 10.9 percent. And if you’re thinking about a contested convention, Illinois and Missouri may be the states to watch.

7:35 P.M. Polls are closed in North Carolina and Ohio — thirty minutes to go in Florida, Illinois, and Missouri. The numbers don’t lie — Donald Trump is not being propelled by the Tea Party movement.

This didn’t help Sanders to beat Clinton in Florida, though.

7:20 P.M. A-M-N-E-S-T-Y

And Trump looks to win big in the Sunshine State.

7:17 P.M. Trump may win big tonight, but here’s the bad news for The Donald.

More on the ballots without Trump’s name — it’s because Florida is a closed primary. More here:

7:14 P.M. New Florida numbers — polls still open, but early votes are being counted. 11 percent reporting: Trump — 47.2 percent. Rubio — 24.0 percent. Cruz — 15.8 percent. Kasich — 7.3 percent. Breaking news from the Onion:

7:11 P.M. Early voters being counted in Florida. From the AP, 1 percent reporting: Trump — 47.9 percent. Rubio — 22.5 percent. Cruz — 15.3 percent. Kasich — 7.6 percent. More from Cruz on the “brokered” verses “contested” convention:

7:07 P.M. More Rubio bad news in Florida.

Economic worries looming large in these primaries — maybe this is why challengers are doing so well.

7:02 P.M. Trump official says he will win Florida. Ted Cruz makes a strong argument for the differences between a “brokered” and a “contested” convention.

Super Tuesday is creating a metro shutdown in Washington, D.C. Tells you all you need to know about the state of the establishment in this country.

7:00 P.M. Distrust of trade is not just a Republican problem. Sanders wins among free trade skeptics.

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And check out the most damning attack ad against Ted Cruz. It will make you squirm.

6:57 P.M. Ohio is looking good for Kasich, late deciders favor the governor.

GOP voters consistently support blocking Muslim immigration.

6:52 P.M. Is Rubio preparing for his exit speech?

Numbers are not looking good for Little Marco.

6:47 P.M. Florida election officials insist Trump’s name was not left off the ballot.

And Florida and Ohio may be stealing the show, but Missouri and Illinois could offer Cruz some very needed wins.

5:56 P.M.  Trump isn’t the only one getting targeted:

But he may be the only one whose name is not on the ballot in some Florida locations.

5:30 P.M. Eastern Time

It’s Super Tuesday III: Ides of March version! A new kind of post-February insanity is going around, and five states will vote tonight in the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries. Donald Trump leads in all the Republican polls, except in Ohio, while Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic side, although Bernie Sanders is narrowing the gap in a few states.

The last polls close at 7:30 P.M. Eastern time in North Carolina and Ohio, and they close at 8:00 P.M. Eastern in Florida, Illinois, and Missouri. PJ Media will provide updates throughout the night.

Florida and Ohio are winner-take-all states, which means whichever candidate takes the largest amount of votes will take all of the state’s delegates. Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina allocate delegates proportionally.

On the Republican side, Florida will award 99 delegates and Ohio will award 66 delegates to the winner. Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina will give 69, 52, and 72 delegates, respectively. The Northern Mariana caucus also occurs today, and will award 9 delegates. Trump is the favorite, as Ben Carson’s endorsement has convinced a major leader there to support The Donald. This adds up to 367 delegates, second only to March 1 as a significant inflection point in the campaign.

If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, those states alone will bring Trump’s lead to 634, more than half of the way to the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination outright. Ted Cruz is trailing Trump by 90 delegates, but his poll numbers show he is not competitive in these two states. Even were Cruz to win the three other states, he would not likely take all of their delegates, leaving him at a significant disadvantage. Cruz needs John Kasich and Marco Rubio to win their home states, to keep delegates out of Trump’s hands.

Even were Trump to sweep all five states and the Northern Marianas, it would not mean the race is over. If Kasich and Rubio were to drop out, and the anti-Trump vote to coalesce behind Cruz, the Texas Senator would still have a narrow shot to beat Trump outright. There might also be an outside chance that Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio could spoil Trump and prevent him from taking the number of delegates required to avoid a contested convention.

We are on Marco Rubio death watch. Although Rubio did win Washington, DC, Puerto Rico, and Minnesota, many expect him to drop out if he loses his home state. John Kasich is more likely to win his, but if he loses yet again, Kasich may also be done — he has not won a single state or even territory, unlike Rubio.

Tyler O'Neil

Tyler O'Neil is an author and conservative commentator. He has written for numerous publications, including The Christian Post, National Review, The Washington Free Beacon, The Daily Signal, AEI's Values & Capitalism, and the Colson Center's Breakpoint. He enjoys Indian food, board games, and talking ceaselessly about politics, religion, and culture. He has appeared on Fox News' "Tucker Carlson Tonight." He is the author of Making Hate Pay: The Corruption of the Southern Poverty Law Center. Follow him on Twitter at @Tyler2ONeil.

Category: ELECTION 2020
Tags: 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DONALD TRUMP FLORIDA GOP NOMINATION MARCO RUBIO TED CRUZ

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